Elliott Waves

March 17, 2003

I have been inundated with Elliott Wave configurations on the gold shares, most of which maintain that there is still one more major downside move still to come. I am not going to analyse them as I do not have the time. But I state mine so that everyone knows exactly where I stand.

One of the critical aspects of the application of Elliott to the gold market is that it is no good just taking one chart in isolation. Whatever configuration you come up with should be able to be applied right across the gold spectrum, including bullion.

The above chart of Goldfields is my marker. I can fit its analysis easily with all other gold shares, including the JSE, FT, XAU, HUI,TOR, OZ Gold indexes bullion, Avgold, Western Areas and Randgold. Can yours? This is a one size fits all situation.

The Elliott configuration is a double zig-zag. That is one classic A,B,C zig-zag separated from a second classic A,B,C zigzag by an intermediate X wave. This is one of the more complex forms of Elliott corrections. As there is effectively no classic final five leg major C wave most analysts continue to look for one further downside move that never materialize.

First A,B,C                from last May to July
X Wave                      from July to September upmove
Second A,B,C           from September to now.

Note that the top of the B wave in December and January was a perfect double or flat top. That was followed by its own C wave sell off.

I believe that we are at the end of a double zig-zag in the gold market and ready to reverse the down trend and commence big wave 3 that will take ALL gold share prices to well above the previous May peaks at the end of Wave 1.

There is a final implication from this analysis. As this large correction was a zig-zag type of pattern I would expect to see a triangle or flat top pattern as the next major correction at the end of the next huge upward thrust.

 

Dr. Clive Roffey
Leading South African analyst and gold share specialist.
chartist@mweb.co.za
www.utm.co.za
www.charts.co.za

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