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Forecast Summary: Commodities, Forex And Stocks

October 10, 2016

We are getting closer to our long forecast drop in the commodities complex with the possibility of some important lows next year. WTI is still putting in a top, the dead cat bounce that has lasted throughout this year is running out of steam. Consequently, we should see the push for lower lows over the next couple of months and into 2017.

We continue to forecast a period of Dollar and Yen strength over the next few months which will have an impact on many of the markets we forecast. We have been forecasting for some time that the the Pound Sterling would be the weakest of the major currencies going forward. Susequently, we got our drop last week, a little earlier and deeper than forecast…but nonetheless well within our forecast parameters.

We have also been forecasting a new down leg down in the Euro against the US Dollar over the coming weeks. And although our forecast has remained on track for some time, there is still the possibility of a final rise before we fall.

We are forecasting a correction in global stocks over the next six months. We think the SPX along with most of the major indices have either put in a top or are in the process of topping out. To be sure this fits in well with our commodity and Forex forecasts.

Our S&P500 forecast has for some time been indicating that we are on the verge of a period of weakness – although it may take a few more weeks before we begin to see the market drop in earnest.

We are currenly expecting a new down leg in commodities, a stronger US Dollar and an even stronger Yen during the fourth quarter of this year.  We anticipate these dynamics will create the conditions for some key markets to sell off for a period, which will relieve some over bought conditions necessary for a healthy market.

Taking patterns in nature that repeat over different time frames like fractals as the basis for the forecast methodology, our forecast patterns can last for months and years. Therefore, we create a most probable long-term fractal pattern…and then continually test it and model it over multiple time frames to ensure the pattern remains a probable event.

You can follow our short-term forecasts on our web site.

Ken Ticehurst been a gold trader for over a decade and is currently developing a unique gold price forecasting system using fractal analysis and unique algorithms. He creates forecasts using different patterns that occur over daily, weekly and monthly time frames. In his view news does not move prices over the long-term, but rather that prices move news over the long-term. Human nature demands an explanation for every price move. It is his philosophy that day to day and even week to week moves are just noise disguising the long-term trends.
 
Ticehurst has a BSc.(Hons.) in Product Design from the University of the West of London with a commercial background in data analysis and research. Ken has been involved in markets as diverse as classic cars, construction and real estate.  He has seen bubbles grow and deflate time and again, subsequently giving birth to his galvanizing interest in the underlying sentiment that drives the fear and greed phases.  Ken’s website is:  http://www.kenticehurst.com

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