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Forecast Summary: Gold Price, FOREX And S&P500 Index

November 22, 2016

We continue to be bearish on gold as we have been for months. In fact our only recent change is that we are expecting a significant low earlier in 2017 than previously forecast. We have consistently maintained that this bearish phase is just a short-term consolidation before we begin a new and significant rise that could well lead to new all-time highs.

Our Euro forecast is now back on track, we have been forecasting that the Euro would break down against the Dollar in the fourth quarter of 2016…and so it has transpired. We still expect the US Dollar to outperform most major currencies as we head in to 2017. The Euro having made a back-test against the Dollar is now likely to continue falling heavily as we end the year and we expect parity in the first quarter of 2017.

We have been forecasting a correction in global stocks over the next six months. Our S&P500 forecast has remained on track for months. To be sure it has been indicating that we are on the verge of a period of weakness. Having recently seen lows not seen since July US stocks were the main beneficiary of the volatility seen earlier this month. However we do not expect this volatility and short term noise to have any meaningful effect on the long term and we still expect to see the market drop as we head towards the end of the year.

So far we have our stronger Dollar and weaker commodities. Moreover, the Yen has not yet shown the increase in strength we were expecting. Consequently, we are still forecasting a breakdown in global stock markets over the coming months. The volatility experienced earlier this month is beginning to fade. Furthermore, a number of markets are expected to resume their previous trends as the strength of the Dollar continues to exert significant pressure on numerous markets.

You can view live short-term forecasts at our website. They are a representation of our medium and long-term forecasts which always show the complete picture. Effectively, prices tend to be more random day to day than they are week to week or even month to month. Our short-term forecasts are always anchored against these larger patterns that barely change from week to week, this is what allows us to be so confident with our shorter-term forecasts in spite of the increase in volatility.

Taking patterns in nature that repeat over different time frames like fractals as the basis for the forecast methodology, our forecast patterns can last for months and years. Consequently, we create a most probable long-term fractal pattern - and then continually test it and model it over multiple time frames to ensure the pattern remains a probable event.

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Ken Ticehurst is the publisher of forecasts for a wide range of markets at kenticehurst.com he has a BSC (Hons.) in Industrial Design and decades of experience as a data analyst. Having used technical analysis during over ten years of trading, he became frustrated with how backward looking it is and set about creating a logical mathematical approach to analysing future prices.

Ken Ticehurst been a gold trader for over a decade and is currently developing a unique gold price forecasting system using fractal analysis and unique algorithms. He creates forecasts using different patterns that occur over daily, weekly and monthly time frames. In his view news does not move prices over the long-term, but rather that prices move news over the long-term. Human nature demands an explanation for every price move. It is his philosophy that day to day and even week to week moves are just noise disguising the long-term trends.
 
Ticehurst has a BSc.(Hons.) in Product Design from the University of the West of London with a commercial background in data analysis and research. Ken has been involved in markets as diverse as classic cars, construction and real estate.  He has seen bubbles grow and deflate time and again, subsequently giving birth to his galvanizing interest in the underlying sentiment that drives the fear and greed phases.  Ken’s website is:  http://www.kenticehurst.com

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