Gold and Miners Decline Despite the Iran-Israel Conflict

Today’s big news is gold’s decline despite the escalation of conflict in the Middle East.

Despite more rockets flying from Israel to Iran and vice versa, gold – the safe-haven asset declined instead of rallying.

A tiny rally here would be bearish. The lack of rally would be very bearish. And what we got is a $40+ decline. This is remarkably bearish.

One could think about it as a non-technical invalidation of a breakout.

Essentially, it’s the same thing. Based on a breakout, the price is “supposed to” rally. If it doesn’t and it declines instead, it serves as a sell signal. Right now, gold is “supposed to” rally based on increased geopolitical tensions, but this is not taking place, and it also serves as a sell signal.

This shows that gold is not willing to trade higher here and it’s in tune with multiple points that I’ve been making in the previous weeks.

Gold just invalidated the moves move above its May high, its 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, and above its early-June high. All while having all the reasons to rally further.

I’m not sure what else I can say to further emphasize how bearish this is.

All right, I’ve got two things.

First, this is in perfect tune with how gold topped in late 2012 – very close to its previous highs.

Second, gold is declining despite a daily decline in the USD Index.

Dollar Breakdown? Not So Fast

Yes, it’s a breakdown. Is it bearish yet? It’s not because:

1. It’s far from being confirmed and last week’s breakdown was quickly invalidated.

2. The USD Index is right at a combination of super-strong support levels based on its long-term chart.

The sentiment… Well, let me just quote a comment from below one of my articles (the emphasis is mine):

“The USD is slumping sharply, feels like that the United States is on the verge of collapse and downfall. Market sentiment is so crazy.”

Is the U.S. collapsing here? Of course, it’s not. Despite the current sentiment, please keep in mind that the USD remains the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. has the world’s most powerful economy (think about the key global tech and AI players) and the world’s most powerful army. Please also keep in mind that the U.S. tariffs are fundamentally bullish for the U.S. dollar.

And yet, here we are. I’m not sure if many of you remember the USD sentiment at its 2008 bottom. Everyone and their brother thought that the USD was trash. And yet – it soared back with a vengeance after this key low.

What happens if the USD declines more? Well, today, gold is proving that it can decline even if the USD declines from here, and the same goes for mining stocks.

Investment Framework Update

Before signing off, I’d like to emphasize the huge change in our approach based on the just-posted investment framework report: The Golden Meadow® Portfolio Strategy

Yes, today’s reaction in gold is exciting as it’s not a moderate or mild indication of gold’s willingness to decline from here – it’s a strong one. However, the adjustments to the overall strategy toward one’s portfolio will likely have a much greater impact on at least one’s portfolio. And as you read the full report – I know, I know, it’s a small book, so you haven’t had the chance to read it so far – you’ll see that it can have a generational impact on more than just money.

On a side note, have you noticed that all texts on Golden Meadow® now have that diamond/star icon in the top right corner? It gives you an AI-generated summary of the text. The same thing is available for the comments feed.

So, I encourage you to read the report and ask questions / comment below it. I’ll be more than happy to further clarify or improve the report. This is something that serves as a blueprint for all signals and analyses coming from experts that are now featured on Golden Meadow® as well as the ones that will be featured in the future.

I prepared this based on numerous research papers, many years of experience and based on many conversations and messages exchanges with my subscribers over the years. I put a lot of effort and care into this. However, I might have some blind spots, I might have written it using some mental short-cuts or using financial jargon that’s not easy to understand for everyone. I tried my best with analogies to military campaigns (as there are indeed many links between investing and conducting military operations) and stories, but if something is still unclear, please let me know (ideally in the comments section below; maybe someone will build upon your points and as further questions / make further notes). I want this report to be as easy to use and as valuable to you as possible.

Thank you for reading my today’s analysis – I appreciate that you took the time to dig deeper and that you read the entire piece. If you’d like to get more (and extra details not available to 99% of investors), I invite you to stay updated with our free analyses - sign up for our free gold newsletter now.

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