Gold - The Big Picture

January 11, 2021

Below is our long term gold forecast, it continues to be bullish on a monthly basis, despite the turbulence of 2020 gold has performed well and a pause for a few months is entirely reasonable given the speed of its initial acceleration.

As you can see from our monthly chart, gold is clearly at significant levels - hovering around the 2011 highs, the underlying structure of the market is still very positive (big blue line) and the bull signal (small blue line) which turned positive in March 2018, still remains bullish. We think a monthly close above $2000 in the next few months would be a significant moment.

From the lows of late 2018 gold has quietly performed well relative to the S&P 500, we have included below our weekly and monthly GOLD/SPX ratio forecasts, you can see on a monthly basis that gold is cheap relative to the SPX and on a weekly basis we are approaching the long term floor. We will be looking for this ratio to begin to turn during 2021.

Gold sold off again this week indicating it wants to consolidate for a while longer, this shouldn’t worry longer term bulls, a few more weeks and months hovering around these levels or even a little lower whilst frustrating will be forgotten when the next bull leg is underway.

The miners surpisingly outperformed gold last week with GDX and GDXj both remaining neutral to mildly bullish.

GOLD continues to be bullish on a MONTHLY basis.

GOLD is bearish on a weekly basis

 

GOLD/SPX remains bearish on a monthly basis

GOLD/SPX remains bearish on a weekly basis

 

GDX has moved to neural on a weekly basis.

VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

GDXJ has turned mildly bullish on a weekly basis.

 

VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ)

Ken Ticehurst

Founder

www.Ivalgo.com

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Ken Ticehurst been a gold trader for over a decade and is currently developing a unique gold price forecasting system using fractal analysis and unique algorithms. He creates forecasts using different patterns that occur over daily, weekly and monthly time frames. In his view news does not move prices over the long-term, but rather that prices move news over the long-term. Human nature demands an explanation for every price move. It is his philosophy that day to day and even week to week moves are just noise disguising the long-term trends.
 
Ticehurst has a BSc.(Hons.) in Product Design from the University of the West of London with a commercial background in data analysis and research. Ken has been involved in markets as diverse as classic cars, construction and real estate.  He has seen bubbles grow and deflate time and again, subsequently giving birth to his galvanizing interest in the underlying sentiment that drives the fear and greed phases.  Ken’s website is:  http://www.kenticehurst.com
China has only 2% of its Total Foreign Reserves in gold.

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