Gold Forecast: Gold Cycle Update

Chief Analyst & Editor @ Goldwavetrader
September 5, 2022

Gold Market, Short-Term

For the near-term action, Gold managed to turn higher into Friday's session, with the metal hitting an intraday peak of 1729.50 - before backing slightly off the same into the daily/weekly close. With that, there is the potential for an upturn in the 10 and 20-day cycles, though that has yet to be confirmed.

For the very short-term, until proven otherwise, the downward phase of each of the 10, 20 and 34-day cycles is still deemed to be in force. The chart below once again shows our 20-day cycle in the Gold market:

In terms of time, our 20-day cycle is now some 31 days along - and with that is moving into extended territory. The current downward phase of this cycle is looking set to bottom the larger 34-day wave, which is now into the early-end of bottoming range.

With the above said and noted, the ideal path is looking for a low anywhere in the current timeframe, to be followed by a rally into mid-September. Having said that, the recent action has decreased the probabilities for a push back above the 1824.60 swing top into mid-month, with the larger 72-day cycle - which is shown again below:

From the comments made in recent articles, our ideal path favored a rally into a mid- September high, before topping this larger 72-day wave. Having said that, as noted above, the strength of the most recent decline now greatly lowers the probabilities for a push back above the 1824.60 swing top in the coming weeks.

With the above said and noted, the probabilities tend to favor any short-term rally with the smaller 10, 20 and 34-day cycles to end up as countertrend, holding below the 1824.60 swing high. From a mid-September peak, another decline would be expected to play out into mid-October, where the next 72-day trough is projected.

Gold, Mid-Term

For the mid-term picture, the next bottom of significance is expected to come from the combination of 72, 154 and 310-day cycles - with the larger 310-day cycle shown on the chart below:

In terms of price, I have mentioned in past articles the potential for a spike down to the 1650 level or lower as this 310-day cycle bottoms, which is near the (extrapolated) lower 310-day cycle channel into early-to-mid October.

All said then, the suggestions are that a low in the current timeframe (10, 20 and 34-day cycles) should give way to what now looks to be countertrend rally into mid-September. From there, the downward phase of the larger 72-day cycle should assume control, taking the metal sharply lower into mid-October - then to be on the lookout for the next mid-term bottom to form.

For the bigger picture, from whatever low that is seen with the 72 and 310-day cycles going forward, the probabilities will favor a rally of some 20-25% or more off the bottom, which is the statistical average rally for this 310-day component. In terms of time, the overall assumption has been that an October, 2022 low would give way to a rally into what looks to be the Spring of next year (plus or minus). Stay tuned.

Jim Curry
The Gold Wave Trader

http://goldwavetrader.com/
http://cyclewave.homestead.com/

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Jim Curry became involved in the markets as an investor in 1988. In the early 1990's he stumbled upon a book/methodology that would change the way he looked at the markets forever. That book was J.M. Hurst's the Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing. Hurst's concepts seemed to make perfect sense to Jim, and he has spent the years since coming up with his own cycle/technical analysis methodology.

In 1998 Jim put his cyclic methods to the test by entering the Etrade national options-trading competition, twice (his only two entries ever into the competition). In the first contest he finished in the top 10 out of over 150,000 entrants; in the second entry into the same contest, he just narrowly missed finishing in first place - over quadrupling a $100,000 account in the contest's short time span.

What you are seeing when you view my market reports is a collection of over 30-years of experience in both numeric analysis and spectral methods - and in actually trading the methodology for myself and for the subscribers of my Gold Wave Trader (which covers Gold) and Market Turns (covering U.S. stocks) reports.

You can visit his websites at: http://goldwavetrader.com/ and http://cyclewave.homestead.com/


The Incas thought gold represented the glory of their sun god and referred to the precious metal as “Tears of the Sun.”
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