Gold Forecast: Gold Cycles Were Correct! Key Update

Chief Analyst & Editor @ Goldwavetrader
June 9, 2024

gold forecastFrom comments made in my articles in past months, Gold had formed a key bottom back in mid-February - and with that was projected higher into mid-April of this year, or later. From there, a correction was favored to play out into the late-May to early-June window, where the next bottom of significance is now due to form.

Gold's Dominant 72-Day Cycle

The 72-day cycle is currently the most dominant cycle in the Gold market. This wave saw a mid-February bottom giving way to a sharp rally - one that was not projected to peak prior to April 9th of this year.  

Shown again is that 72-day cycle component:

Following a peak on April 12th, the downward phase of this 72-day cycle began to assert itself, with the metal dropping some 6.6% into early-May. From there, however, a push back to a minor new high was seen into May 27th - though that rally was not able to take out the April peak on a closing basis.

With the above said and noted, our overall assessment remained intact, which called for a 72-day bottom made into the late-May to early-June window, though this window could extend slightly, from the original (time) projections.

Price Considerations

From my 5/26/24 article: "with price, we normally expect to see a drop back to the lower 72-day cycle band as this wave bottoms out - something that has been seen prior to 85-90% of the lows for this particular wave. In terms of time, this 72-day cycle is still projecting a bottom in the coming weeks, and with that - until proven otherwise - we would like to see additional weakness playing out, then to be on the lookout for technical signs of a bottom forming."

In terms of price, the ideal path favored a correction back to the 72-day moving average or lower, seen 90% of the time before our 72-day cycle normally bottoms.

With the above, Friday's action has now dropped Gold back to its 72-day moving average. Having said that, Friday's sharp decline seems to favor additional weakness into the new week, with the next logical magnet being the lower 72-day cycle band - something which also tends to be hit prior to 72-day lows.

Going further with the above, we are close to triggering a new upside 'reversal point' for this 72-day wave. This reversal point figure will be an exact price number for Gold, which - when taken out to the upside - will confirm the next upward phase of this 72-day cycle to be back in force, with precise details in our thrice-weekly Gold Wave Trader report.

The above is key, as the average rallies with this 72-day wave - when forming  the pattern of a 'higher-low' - have been in the range of 10-14% or more. This gives us some idea of the potential upside, once this cycle does bottom.

The Mid-Term Picture

For the mid-term view, the larger upward phase seen since October, 2023 has come from our 310-day cycle - as well as the even-larger four-year wave - with the smaller 310-day component shown again on the chart below:

As originally mentioned back in the Autumn of last year, the last mid-term low was expected to come from this 310-day wave. The upward phase of this cycle was confirmed to be back in force back in late-October of 2023, thus confirming a 20-25% rally to be in force - projected to last into the Spring/Summer of this year.

With the above said and noted, a low that forms with our 72-day wave - if seen as outlined - should give way to a sharp rally into mid-Summer of this year. In turn, that rally will eventually peak the larger 310-day cycle, for what is anticipated to be a bigger percentage decline into the late-2024 to early-2025 window.

Until proven otherwise the next correction phase of our 310-day cycle is favored to end up as countertrend. With that, a late-2024 to early-2025 bottom with this cycle - if seen as noted - should give way to another sharp rally into what (tentatively) looks to be next Summer, before topping the next larger cycle, the four-year component.

The Four-Year Cycle in Gold

Our largest-tracked cycle for the Gold market is the four-year wave, which last bottomed back in October, 2022.

Here again is that four-year cycle in Gold:

As mentioned above, with the position of this four-year cycle (i.e., higher into mid-to-late 2025), the next correction phase of the smaller 310-day component is expected to end up as countertrend. If correct, what follows should be a push back to higher highs into the Summer of next year (or later) before topping this larger-degree wave.

In terms of price, we recently confirmed an upside target for this four-year cycle, giving us a precise level that we expect to reach going forward - with the exact details of this target posted in our Gold Wave Trader market report.

For the longer-term outlook, once this four-year wave tops in Gold, we would expect to see a sharp decline - something in the range of 20-30% off the top, likely playing out into the late-2026 timeframe. Having said that, it is too early to speculate too much in regards to this four-year cycle, though we should know more as we get closer to next Summer.

Jim Curry
The Gold Wave Trader

Market Turns Advisory
http://goldwavetrader.com/
http://cyclewave.homestead.com/

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Jim Curry became involved in the markets as an investor in 1988. In the early 1990's he stumbled upon a book/methodology that would change the way he looked at the markets forever. That book was J.M. Hurst's the Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing. Hurst's concepts seemed to make perfect sense to Jim, and he has spent the years since coming up with his own cycle/technical analysis methodology.

In 1998 Jim put his cyclic methods to the test by entering the Etrade national options-trading competition, twice (his only two entries ever into the competition). In the first contest he finished in the top 10 out of over 150,000 entrants; in the second entry into the same contest, he just narrowly missed finishing in first place - over quadrupling a $100,000 account in the contest's short time span.

What you are seeing when you view my market reports is a collection of over 30-years of experience in both numeric analysis and spectral methods - and in actually trading the methodology for myself and for the subscribers of my Gold Wave Trader (which covers Gold) and Market Turns (covering U.S. stocks) reports.

You can visit his websites at: http://goldwavetrader.com/ and http://cyclewave.homestead.com/


It is estimated that the total amount of gold mined up to the end of 2011 is approximately 166,000 tonnes.
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