Gold Price 2023 Forecast: New All-Time Highs Late-2023 / 2024

Chief Analyst & Founder @ iGold Advisor
January 5, 2023

Gold has staged an impressive recovery from its Q4 2022 lows of $1,615 per ounce: the precious metal is trading at $1,860, or 15.2% higher, as this article is going to press in early January. So impressive is the recovery that it has negated a bear-market signal which appeared last August, and instead flipped the 2023 - 2024 expectation decidedly higher. In this article, we will highlight the technical reversal which gold has registered, and discuss our forecast for gold in 2023.

Rewind for Perspective

First, let us rewind to gold’s 2011 – 2015 bear market, in order to comprehend the magnitude of the reversal signal just witnessed:

Note how from 2011 through early-2013, gold consolidated in a mostly sideways fashion between $1,525 - $1,920. When the precious metal finally broke lower in April 2013 (red callout), this signified the warning for the start of a bear market: indeed, from the breakdown point, gold fell for another 3 years, losing $480 more per ounce, until the December 2015 bottom.

From the 2011 top to the 2015 low, gold fell by 45%, losing $875 in total.

Even more depressing, many gold miners lost 90% - 100% of their value during this time.

This is why we monitor for breakdowns so closely, and do not ignore them until the market shows us that the coast is clear.

Back to the Present

The setup was the same this time around: gold had been consolidating for two years, this time in a range between $1,680 - $2,075 per ounce.

Then, in September 2011, as fears of deflation gripped the market following a series of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, gold again broke lower through its 2-year support. The setup looked ominously similar to 2013 (above).

However, something dramatically different has just occurred.

This time, instead of breaking down into a sustained bear market as in 2013, gold recovered its broken 2-year support at $1,680, just seven weeks after breaking down.

Another way we can say this is gold has just witnessed a false breakdown.

And in technical analysis of the market, it is said that there is nothing more bullish than a false breakdown!

In sum, this is a dramatic difference compared to the 2013 breakdown, and it is a signal that a very new scenario is about to unfold for gold as compared to the 2011 – 2015 example.

Gold 2023 – 2024 Forecast

So what is next then for gold?

The next major resistance level that gold will encounter will be the $2,000 zone.

While the official all-time high from 2020 was $2,074 per ounce, matched nearly exactly in 2022, functionally speaking any price level approaching the round $2,000 figure is going to represent a psychological test of the all-time high resistance zone. Markets tend to gravitate toward round numbers, and so we expect that the next top will come for gold in the $2,000 region sometime in Q1 2023.

The coming push toward the psychological $2,000 barrier will represent the third challenge at this resistance zone, as we can see on the chart above. Markets tend to not break out on their third attempts, based on a study of technical analysis spanning several decades. Thus, in our expectation, gold will back off again into mid-year 2023.

Following this backoff, gold should prepare for the 4th and final attempt at the $2,000 resistance zone. We expect this challenge will come late in 2023, and lasting into 2024.

A fundamental trigger will present itself at the appropriate time to cause the breakout. What it will be – we cannot say yet. However, it most likely will come from a policy mistake out of the Federal Reserve, or another major central bank. Another possibility is that the breakout will be precipitated by an expansion of the war between Russia and Ukraine, perhaps spreading into mainland Europe.

No matter the cause, the result should be a successful breakout by gold on the 4th attempt, followed by significantly higher gold prices into the $2,400 - $2,500 region. We will evaluate gold targets for the next wave higher in the future, as we get closer to the breakout point. For now, let us grasp the most important messages of the market.

Takeaway on Gold

  • Gold has just witnessed a rare false-breakdown following a 2-year consolidation.

  • Following a false-breakdown, a powerful move in the opposite direction is expected.

  • Gold will be gearing up for its 3rd attempt at the all-time high resistance zone as it approaches $2,000. The 3rd attempt is typically not successful.

  • Following a final backoff, gold should make a 4th and successful break to new all-time highs for good.

  • Silver, and the gold and silver miners, should begin to show significant leverage to the gold price advance, once it is clear to all that a breakout is underway.

  • The time to prepare for gold’s break to new all-time highs is now, before the mainstream investor is aware that it is happening. Once the mainstream media is talking about gold, it will be too late to realize outstanding gains. Many gold miners remain valued as if gold was $500 below where it is today, due to the poor sentiment following a 2-year period of stagnant prices. In a future article, we will examine some of the fundamentals we are searching for in gold and silver miners.

At www.iGoldAdvisor.com, we are preparing to purchase several precious metals-related investments. In addition to bullion, we plan to make highly-leveraged investments in gold and silver miners via private placements, which offer investors free warrants mining companies in addition to their shares.

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Christopher Aaron began his career as an intelligence analyst for the CIA and Department of Defense. He served two tours to Afghanistan and Iraq between 2006 - 2009, conducting pattern-of-life mapping for military leaders.

Mapping shares similarities with technical analysis of the financial markets because both involve the interpretation of repeating patterns found in human nature. He is the founder of iGold Advisor, providing independent research and analytics on all aspects of the precious metals markets.

He speaks regularly on the cyclical patterns found within the financial markets and on international policy. He has been featured in the New York Times and NPR news amongst other financial publications.

www.iGoldAdvisor.com


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