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Gold's Vital Signs Are Worrisome

October 14, 2016

Gold’s recent breach of the key low at 1259.10 low (see inset) recorded in June is worrisome. However,  the picture would become still more so if a relapse in the days ahead takes the December contract beneath the 1242.70 low just to the left of it.

That would increase the imputed power of the bearish impulse leg begun from September 22’s 1347.80 high. Strictly speaking, there has been no upward correction of that leg, and that’s why the 1242.70 low, although it doesn’t look like much, should be considered a dangerous threshold. Alternatively, the futures would need a very powerful rally — one exceeding early September’s 1357.60 peak — to get completely out of jeopardy. However, using the subtler shadings of the 60-minute chart, we could at least take encouragement if bulls are able to push the December contract above 1270.40 in the next day or two. That’s the first minor ‘external’ peak (from 10/7) to the left on the intraday charts. Consequently, a thrust above it would generate a promising bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart.


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