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Has Gold Price Started A New Bull Market?

February 14, 2016

Well what a couple of weeks for the bulls, resistance was taken out on a daily weekly and monthly basis. It was certainly unexpected…but then they don’t ring a bell at the bottom.

We have been bearish for a couple of years now -- and have been patiently waiting for a sign that the bear is waning. Well we’ve certainly had a sign…but is it enough to declare the bottom is in and a new bull has started? Well maybe, but we are hard to please.

The problem is this is not a nice steady stealthy accumulation but a frantic disjointed parabolic short squeeze, currently gold is up over 16% in a little over 6 weeks since the start of the year that is unsustainable and the faster something goes up the faster it falls.

This short squeeze is more reminiscent of the 2000 bottom which took a full year to settle down before the new bull phase began. We don’t think this squeeze should take so long to consolidate provided it settles down but we would certainly like to see some consolidation before the picture becomes clearer.

The 1990s bear ended up being a double bottom after the short squeeze there is the possibility that we could have a double bottom in a few months’ time. The buyers were more than likely shorts who couldn’t push through their advantage and were probably liquidating profitable positions to cover losses in other markets.

We would definitely urge caution to anyone thinking about buying something that has risen so much so quickly patience should be rewarded. We believe there will be better positions to be had that represent a better risk reward than today’s price which are at extreme levels relative to sentiment.

We now create forecasts for a wide range of markets, stocks, commodities, forex, interest rates and energy along with gold we have added our maths to be able to add more accuracy.

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Ken Ticehurst been a gold trader for over a decade and is currently developing a unique gold price forecasting system using fractal analysis and unique algorithms. He creates forecasts using different patterns that occur over daily, weekly and monthly time frames. In his view news does not move prices over the long-term, but rather that prices move news over the long-term. Human nature demands an explanation for every price move. It is his philosophy that day to day and even week to week moves are just noise disguising the long-term trends.

Ticehurst has a BSc.(Hons.) in Product Design from the University of the West of London with a commercial background in data analysis and research. Ken has been involved in markets as diverse as classic cars, construction and real estate. He has seen bubbles grow and deflate time and again, subsequently giving birth to his galvanizing interest in the underlying sentiment that drives the fear and greed phases. Ken’s website is: http://www.kenticehurst.com