How High Will Gold Stocks Rise In 2020 – 2023?

May 21, 2020

All Things Have Limits

Except for the Almighty, all things have limits in this world.  Our knowledge of the vast universe is limited by the speed of light.  Our knowledge of the most minute particles is limited by the uncertainty principle. Of course the current global printing press will have limits soon or later by the monetary reset, as we discussed in our previous articles.

In this article we estimate how high will the gold stocks rise in the next three years.  We consider three models.

The Great Depression Model

The gold stocks represented by Home Stake Mining (HM) rises while the DOW decreases in opposite direction during the Great Depression. Equivalent time periods for the present are given in the following chart.

Chart 1 – Gold Stock (HM) Rises Dramatically in The Great Depression

The Baron Gold Mining Model

The Baron Gold Mining Index (BGMI) also has a long history.  We adapted a good analysis of the rise of BGMI gold stocks by comparing two regions shown below.

Chart 2 – Comparing Barron Gold Mining Rise Patterns

Fractal Analysis of Gold Bug Index (HUI)

We applied fractal pattern analysis in 2 regions to estimate the peaks of the gold stock rise in the next 7 years.                 

Chart 3 – Estimation of HUI Peaks by Fractal Pattern Analysis

Summary

There will be more dramatic rises in the gold mining stocks, driven primarily by the rise of gold price.  In particular we expect the following rise in the next two years:

  • Gold Bug Index (HUI) will rise from current value of 301 to 747 (148%) by 2021.

It is critical to manage our investment portfolios wisely.

We are not certified or qualified financial advisors.  Please consult your certified financial advisors for actual trading and investing.

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F.T. Dao is a private investor and recently left the corporate world for technical analysis of stock markets.  He holds a PhD degree in physics and has done technical analysis of the market on the side for many years.  He welcomes constructive discussion and can be reached at:  ftdao245@gmail.com  , ftdao245@comcast.net

Nevada accounts for 75% of U.S. gold production.

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