Inflation Ahead? Yeah, Sure.

February 9, 2017

The inflation drumbeat has grown more insistent lately, stoked by Fed blather about raising rates to prevent the economy from overheating. Yeah, sure. I’m not buying any of it, particularly statistics that purport to show inflation even in Europe.  An epic deflation still awaits and eventually will be triggered by the implosion of a largely uncollateralized, quadrillion dollar derivatives bubble. A further, irresistible catalyst will be the zeroing out of deferred, unpayable liabilities in our pension and healthcare systems.

These deflationary black holes cannot be ‘monetized’ like the financial system, since they involve real cash sent to real recipients each month to pay for real services and real goods. More immediately, the bull cycle has peaked for residential and commercial real estate. If these factors add up to the return of inflation, then I am a monkey’s uncle. T-Bonds seem to know all of this, having risen sharply in recent weeks. Don’t be surprised if the trend continues.

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