Large Currency Speculators Cut Their US Dollar Bullish Bets For 6th Week

May 13, 2015

US Dollar net speculator positions fell last week to +$32.25 billion

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators decreased their overall net bullish positions for the US dollar last week for a sixth consecutive week and to the lowest level since September 2014.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $32.25 billion as of Tuesday May 5th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$2.50 billion from the $34.75 billion total long position that was registered on April 28th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The latest data puts the US dollar speculative level at a new lowest level since September 16th when net positions equaled $31.42 billion.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the euro, British pound sterling, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar while decreasing weekly bets for the Japanese yen, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican Peso.

Notable Changes:

  • The euro bets rose for a 2nd week by +7,639 contracts to improve to the best level since March
  • British pound sterling positions gained by +9,370 contracts to land at the best level since February
  • Japanese yen bets dropped after gaining for the previous 3 weeks and fell back to a bearish position of over -30,000 contracts
  • Swiss franc bets gained for a 4th week to raise its bullish position to +5,331 contracts
  • Canadian dollar bets rose for a 3rd week to level at a bearish position of -10,080 contracts. This is the lowest bearish position since October
  • Australian dollar bets rose sharply last week to a small bullish position (+626 contracts) for the first bullish position since September 2014
  • New Zealand dollar positions slightly declined after seven weeks of rises that moved the NZD into bullish territory
  • Mexican Peso bets declined for a 3rd week and dropped further into bearish territory after one week in bullish territory on April 14th

This latest COT data is through Tuesday May 5th and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.

 

Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price

EuroFX:

Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Com Long

Com Short

Net Com

Com Chg

Net Specs

Specs Chg

03/31/2015

459746

41709

268269

372420

97951

274469

2614

-226560

-5597

04/07/2015

441624

39444

254702

356228

96223

260005

-14464

-215258

11302

04/14/2015

453518

45264

257611

358360

101060

257300

-2705

-212347

2911

04/21/2015

457610

46821

261466

361058

102833

258225

925

-214645

-2298

04/28/2015

456919

50734

248500

356986

116294

240692

-17533

-197766

16879

05/05/2015

449254

50116

240243

343981

116070

227911

-12781

-190127

7639

 

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Com Long

Com Short

Net Com

Com Chg

Net Specs

Specs Chg

03/31/2015

182514

35143

71773

130848

75229

55619

-3239

-36630

1927

04/07/2015

185219

37641

71942

130411

78813

51598

-4021

-34301

2329

04/14/2015

189513

33993

70038

136944

79221

57723

6125

-36045

-1744

04/21/2015

175066

34830

64111

124700

77203

47497

-10226

-29281

6764

04/28/2015

171698

33239

67367

118250

73492

44758

-2739

-34128

-4847

05/05/2015

173468

34304

59062

117555

87212

30343

-14415

-24758

9370

 

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Com Long

Com Short

Net Com

Com Chg

Net Specs

Specs Chg

03/31/2015

177478

44409

68333

116378

53965

62413

-23565

-23924

21981

04/07/2015

189444

53320

77769

118118

54475

63643

1230

-24449

-525

04/14/2015

195230

54783

77853

121029

64194

56835

-6808

-23070

1379

04/21/2015

189332

51520

65968

120368

70330

50038

-6797

-14448

8622

04/28/2015

188079

48721

54214

118521

85966

32555

-17483

-5493

8955

05/05/2015

198886

41852

73035

139448

72449

66999

34444

-31183

-25690

 

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Com Long

Com Short

Net Com

Com Chg

Net Specs

Specs Chg

03/31/2015

34149

13679

12973

14653

4497

10156

-2746

706

4661

04/07/2015

33245

12746

12626

13347

4548

8799

-1357

120

-586

04/14/2015

33935

12240

12070

14628

4733

9895

1096

170

50

04/21/2015

31727

11105

10770

13105

6074

7031

-2864

335

165

04/28/2015

31585

11144

9809

13114

7268

5846

-1185

1335

1000

05/05/2015

34449

14174

8843

12091

11680

411

-5435

5331

3996

 

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Com Long

Com Short

Net Com

Com Chg

Net Specs

Specs Chg

03/31/2015

110447

18771

48389

66324

21992

44332

-5151

-29618

3038

04/07/2015

114881

22081

52100

67159

23581

43578

-754

-30019

-401

04/14/2015

118686

23020

53598

66797

24088

42709

-869

-30578

-559

04/21/2015

126801

33343

60394

64497

30901

33596

-9113

-27051

3527

04/28/2015

128938

33858

54767

64232

39337

24895

-8701

-20909

6142

05/05/2015

122108

30028

40108

63415

49852

13563

-11332

-10080

10829

 

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Com Long

Com Short

Net Com

Com Chg

Net Specs

Specs Chg

03/31/2015

138260

55814

80170

66179

20286

45893

-4428

-24356

4012

04/07/2015

159532

55928

96209

89081

21243

67838

21945

-40281

-15925

04/14/2015

161971

55077

97510

92927

21531

71396

3558

-42433

-2152

04/21/2015

153363

55570

90233

83040

23795

59245

-12151

-34663

7770

04/28/2015

140298

53753

81158

67196

22618

44578

-14667

-27405

7258

05/05/2015

137001

59033

58407

57213

44377

12836

-31742

626

28031

 

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Com Long

Com Short

Net Com

Com Chg

Net Specs

Specs Chg

03/31/2015

24049

16443

12412

4473

5776

-1303

-4360

4031

4897

04/07/2015

24920

16950

11172

4489

8929

-4440

-3137

5778

1747

04/14/2015

25176

17081

11078

4579

9134

-4555

-115

6003

225

04/21/2015

26617

18473

9985

4241

11950

-7709

-3154

8488

2485

04/28/2015

28071

18281

8101

5134

15431

-10297

-2588

10180

1692

05/05/2015

28379

19585

10521

4813

13039

-8226

2071

9064

-1116

 

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures

Date

Open Interest

Specs Long

Specs Short

Com Long

Com Short

Net Com

Com Chg

Net Specs

Specs Chg

03/31/2015

157688

43289

73578

106671

72784

33887

-11456

-30289

10811

04/07/2015

151072

42185

65110

101214

75811

25403

-8484

-22925

7364

04/14/2015

130501

63521

55160

59830

65310

-5480

-30883

8361

31286

04/21/2015

118074

50343

64018

60891

43780

17111

22591

-13675

-22036

04/28/2015

138497

38003

61394

78510

51737

26773

9662

-23391

-9716

05/05/2015

146418

24046

74162

102349

49406

52943

26170

-50116

-26725


*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

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Courtesy of http://countingpips.com/

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