A Santa Dead-Cat Bounce Ahead?

November 27, 2018

AAPL has trampolined $4, or 2.4%, after bottoming an inch from the 170.78 ‘Hidden Pivot’ target I’ve been drum-rolling here for the last week. The stock was trading near $190 at the time the target was first broached. Friday’s low got close, hitting 171.85. But even when the stock opened higher on Monday, touching 175,  I repeated a warning that AAPL would still have to fall to 170.78 before it could turn around. This it did — coincidentally during an online ‘requests’ session I was conducting for subscribers. Some of them were able to buy stock or call options and to book substantial profits later in the session as the stock shot higher with barely a correction.

A Santa Dead-Cat Bounce?

The turnaround could prove significant for the stock market as a whole, since, if AAPL has made a bottom of at least temporary importance, so have the broad averages. The stock’s rally is still fragile, to be sure, but if were to continue for a few more days, exceeding a 181.47 peak recorded a week ago on the way down, we could confidently infer that the move is likely to get legs.  Even so, I would regard such a move as corrective and therefore unlikely to achieve new record highs. At best, it might energize buyers sufficiently to keep stocks buoyant for the rest of the year.

I will remain open-minded to other possibilities nonetheless, even if the increasingly worrisome downturn in housing and autos is ample reason for bulls to do a whole lot more correcting before they resume their wilding spree of the last nine years. AAPL will remain the best stock to follow for hints about what is coming, since the company is the most valuable in the world, and because its share are owned by nearly every portfolio manager on the planet.

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