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US Dollar Index, pre-FOMC Show of Strength

Founder & Editor @
January 24, 2024

US dollar index (DXY) frisky ahead of next week’s FOMC nothingburger, I mean meeting

We projected a bounce for USD nearly a month ago in this now public NFTRH+ update.

In a subsequent and still password protected video update the following was noted…

“The very key here is 104.30, or the December high. Take that out and the correction is busted for the dollar and something else is going on.”

Today the US Dollar index (DXY) is pushing extremes, as markets so often do. It is popping through resistance and the SMA 200, just to get TAs and the machines alike riled up. With the recent jawboning by Fed orifices in the media * and recent still-firm economic data (employment and consumer) Uncle Buck has really got a good bounce in his step. But the lower high is intact and I wonder if an FOMC contrary flashpoint and/or any near-term economic data may bring a halt to the bounce.

Conversely, if USD unexpectedly takes out the December high, “something else is going on”. But right now, it’s bounce baby, bounce! And nothing more. All as originally anticipated.

On a cautionary note, long-term charts show justification for the support lines drawn on the daily chart above. And that justification is solid. Also, USD has thus far made a higher high to the March high and thus far held a higher low to the July low. So USD could well end its correction by those measures.

Oh, and there’s this to consider as well. The Gold/Silver ratio led USD’s bounce and it remains elevated. If both of these were to get out of the barn and rise impulsively, something else assuredly would be going on here. And that, to quote the hilarious Seinfeld ‘bad chicken’ episode, “is not gonna be good for anybody”.

* And how annoying is it that these creeps feel the need to get in the media so regularly, over-killing us constantly with bald faced perceptions management?

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Gary Tanashian is founder and editor of the popular Notes from the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH). Gary successfully owned and operated a progressive medical component manufacturing company for 21 years, keeping the company’s fundamentals in alignment with global economic realities through various economic cycles. The natural progression from this experience is an understanding of and appreciation for global macro-economics as it relates to individual markets and sectors.

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