“We inspect the price volatility before, during, and after financial asset bubbles in order to uncover possible commonalities and check empirically whether volatility might be used as an indicator or an early warning signal of an unsustainable price increase and the...
Gold Editorials & Commentary
February 11, 2018
Two Friday’s ago, (January 26th) the Dow Jones made its latest BEV Zero, new all-time high. Nine trading days later (Thursday Feb 8th) it broke below its BEV -10% line in a very dramatic fashion.
February 10, 2018
We will update global markets as well as the macro situation in NFTRH 486, but for this article I’d like to focus on the US stock market.
To public readers of our updates, our cycle indicator is one of the most effective timing tool for traders and investors. It is not perfect, because periodically the market can be more volatile and can result in short term whipsaws. But overall, the cycle indicator...
In an almost prophetic blog post from John Hussman last week, we are warned about the bubble waiting to collapse in the US equity market and the hard lesson investors are about to learn. Drawing on both his own experience and the work of the much revered Didier...
30% to 45% assuming consumers remain rational and assuming commercial banks are able to cope with a possible increase in their levels of non-performing loans.
February 9, 2018
It is my privilege now to welcome in Axel Merk, President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments and author of the book Sustainable Wealth. Axel is a highly sought-after guest at financial conferences and on news outlets throughout the world, and it's...
As we have noted here before, we believe that financial markets have generated the biggest bubble in history. There are many supporting facts for this view, from extreme measures of market sentiment to prolonged record low volatility, unprecedented low interest ...
Here are today's videos and charts.
The unnaturally-tranquil stock markets suddenly plunged over this past week. Volatility skyrocketed out of the blue and shattered years of artificial calm conjured by extreme central-bank distortions. This was a huge shock to the legions of hyper-complacent traders...
We’ve received many comments and questions from our members over the past few days regarding the recent US market crisis asking what to expect next. Is this the start of something bigger? Deeper? What should I do with my open long positions? What should I do to...
Long ago in a distant galaxy called “2017,” stock prices rose every day. And the people were happy. With paper profits in hand they maxed out their credit cards and bank lines to buy flat-screen TVs and cars and cover their student loans.
February 8, 2018
Before we look at tonight's chart I would like to reiterate once more that we have traded one of the best bull markets runs in history. There was hardly a time over the last year or so that the stock markets were down more than 2 or 3 days in a row. It seemed like...
In the first half of 2017, the GDXJ (VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF) went through an EPIC rebalancing for junior gold mining stocks, that created a once in a few years opportunity. There was a huge tsunami of capital that flowed into the GDXJ, causing the GDXJ to...
Financial markets are abuzz with how much money the global economy lost earlier this week when the Dow Jones Index had a bit of a crash – ahem – ‘correction’. Luckily it has (temporarily at least) recovered but there are many other threats to financial markets in...
February 7, 2018
It has been an emotional ride for most traders since stocks started to sell off last Friday in a big way. This crash we just experienced is VERY much like the Aug 2015 crash. Price and volatility both have parabolic price movements that could either make you a lot...
There’s a sneaky development underway, one that’s been off the radar of most investors. It contributed to the recent stock market plunge, and if it really takes hold it has major ramifications for the three G’s: groceries, gas, and gold.
Investors in the bitcoin and cryptomarkets are running scared as prices continued to plunge yesterday before a bounce today. Top altcoins lost 50% of their value on Monday, bringing the total value wiped off the crypto market in 24 hours to over $60 billion.
February 6, 2018
Monday’s monster stock selloff is exhibit A for why I frequently recommend a 10 percent weighting in gold, with 5 percent in bullion and jewelry, the other 5 percent in high-quality gold stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.
In terms of time, a short-term secondary low is due for gold here in the current timeframe, originally projected for the February 7th date, but with the normal plus or minus variance of a day or two in either direction. The current decline comes as a result of the...
The appointment of Jerome Powell as new Fed chair is likely the catalyst that ushers in a multi-decade era of rising inflation and soaring gold stocks. I’ve announced a long term target for GDX of $15,000. That really isn’t very high… given the strong inflation...
On Janet Yellen’s last day as Fed boss the markets suffered their worst percentage loss in 20-months. Yesterday, on Jerome Powell’s first day as Fed Chairman, the VIX spiked by its largest amount on record and the Dow suffered its largest single day point drop ever...
The markets just changed. Few understand what happened to the financial system after 2008. What happened was that the debt based financial system began to implode as debt deflation took hold. The scary thing is that it wasn’t even a large amount of debt deflation....
In the next downturn (which may have started last week, yee-haw), the world’s central banks will face a bit of poetic justice: To keep their previous policy mistakes from blowing up the world in 2008, they cut interest rates to historically – some would say...
Gold prices rose today in all major currencies as a rout in global equities prompted investors to seek shelter in safe haven gold.
February 5, 2018
On the campaign trail, then-presidential candidate Donald Trump pledged to invest as much as $1 trillion in U.S. infrastructure if he were elected. Last week during his first State of the Union address, now-President Trump added half a trillion dollars more to that...
Despite the headwinds of rising interest rates, gold was the best performing metal this week, although down slightly by 1.24 percent. Gold traders are bullish for the fourth week in a row after the yellow metal posted its biggest monthly advance in five months in...
Most Americans have spent the last few years pressed up against the proverbial bakery window, watching the 1% enjoy a life of ever-increasing wealth and seemingly total indifference to the multitudes who aren’t favored by zero interest rates, big trust funds and ...
Last week, we took a break from the theme of the consumption of capital, for our annual Outlook 2018 report. We are going to leave the topic for one more week, while we address a market move which is on everyone’s mind.
I’ve spent over thirty years analyzing markets and have noticed an interesting correlation between the Wall St. Markets (stocks, interest rates) Gold (and the mining shares), the Dollar Index and Oil. In the charts below, I describe what I call “shadows” of the past...
