To paraphrase Jim Grant, gold’s perceived value in US$ terms is the reciprocal of confidence in the Fed and/or the US economy. Consequently, what I refer to as gold’s true fundamentals are measures of confidence in the Fed and/or the US economy. I’ve been covering...
Gold Editorials & Commentary
June 23, 2017
June 22, 2017
An asymmetric trade is a situation where investing a relatively small amount of money holds the potential of yielding a profit many times the amount of the original sum at risk. In other words, where the risk to reward is skewed massively in the direction of reward...
Some days it can feel a little rough being a gold investor. In today’s article Dominic Frisby is certainly feeling that way. Sometimes it can be all too easy to get caught up in the day to day chat around prices. Some forget that the reasons why they invested are...
Gold and gold stocks are setting up a basing formation that will eventually resolve into a big move higher or lower. Sentiment in the gold market is bearish and the media is totally ignoring the gold market right now. Seasonally gold tends to make a major bottom...
The market has gone absolutely nowhere for 15 weeks now. That is not a typo, nor am I bearing overly negative. Since the end of February, when President Trump last tweeted that he had big plans for the economy, the S&P 500 is up a total of just 1.6% or roughly...
Tonight I would like to update a few ratio combo charts as several are at a crossroad, which may shed some light on where the PM complex may be headed next. A couple of the ratio combo charts worked out extremely well in calling a bottom in January of 2016.
June 21, 2017
Basel III is a set of international banking regulations developed by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) to promote stability in the international financial system. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS), which brings together regulators from 28...
This week the festival of all festivals begins, Glastonbury 2017. Ed Sheeran, Foo Fighters and Barry Gibb will each be singing to the 250,000 revellers who are currently on their way to Somerset. To those unfamiliar with Glastonbury it is a glorious few days in the...
June 20, 2017
Inflation at 2.9% and wage growth lagging behind has meant household consumers in the UK are under intense pressure from rising living costs. The IHS Markit Index and Survey measures how people feel about their current situation. The June reading changed from 43.8...
After the US markets close today, Morgan Stanley will announce whether Chinese stocks get the green light for inclusion in their emerging market index.
Stocks continue to trade at nosebleed valuations. According to Fact Set, the S&P500 is currently trading at a P/E of 21. This is well above its 10-year average of 16.7. And bear in mind, eight of those ten years (from 2010-2017) were when stocks were already...
The stock market is due for a sudden air pocket, likely from Tuesday to Thursday this week. My downside target is 2398 +/-. We are due for the 10 week low from April 13, 2017. The SPX is making an irregular abc type (y) wave top that is not being confirmed by...
Last month I told you about the upcoming rebalance of the hugely popular VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), and how it would distress shares of junior, small-cap mining stocks. I said then that the rebalance could create some excellent opportunities for...
June 19, 2017
PIMCO (Pacific Investment Management Company) is the largest American-based, private investment company focused on bonds. As of its last filing, it had over $1.51 trillion in assets under management—that is significant, and the man who founded the company, Bill...
The best performing precious metal for the week was gold, off just 1.02 percent despite a Fed rate hike. The Fed may not be in a position to continue with multiple rate hikes. Mike McGlone, BI Commodity Strategist, points out the current situation that both crude...
Raise the Inflation Target and Put a Date on It! That’s the direction some high-profile economist and former members on the FOMC want to go. According to these academics, including Narayana Kocherlakota the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis...
While investors pile into Tech Stocks based on endless promotion from the financial media, the US economy is rolling over. Last week the NY Fed downgraded its economic forecast for 2Q17 to just 1.9%. Even worse, it is now forecasting 2017 total growth to be a measly...
Safe-haven assets always have a place in the financial markets. Investors are constantly on the lookout for ways to shore up their financial portfolios. This is particularly true during times of geopolitical uncertainty, and increasing volatility.
The target for TLT continues to be around 129. Treasury bonds are in bull trends (remember back a few months ago to all the bond hatred in the media). How does an eventual decline in bonds square with what we just noted above regarding Q4 2008? [work done in the...
Gold was down after the Fed’s hike, but I expect it to start heading higher again. Too many powerful forces are driving it behind the scenes. Dwindling physical supply is a major one.
The big news this week comes from the Fed, which announced two things. One, it hiked the Fed Funds rate another 25 basis points. The target is now 1.00 to 1.25%, and there will be further increases this year. Two, the Fed plans to reduce its balance sheet, its...
June 18, 2017
Unlike regular investors, billionaire money managers like Ray Dalio and Stan Druckenmiller are professional investors. They have entire institutional teams at their disposal, dive deep into the nuances and complexities of the market, and spend every waking moment of...
Compared to the impressive 300km+ velocity of the Train à Grande Vitesse, which today whisked us from Avignon to Nice, Gold's track this past week was akin to the far lower speed local rail extension across the additional 20-or-so kilometers eastward that finds us...
Although SPX was more affected than the Dow (which closed at a new high on Friday) by the tech correction it, too, is expected to continue its uptrend for a while longer. I believe that the 20-wk cycle, due to bottom in August, will put an end to the rally from...
The latest Commitment of Traders ((NYSE:COT)) report predictably showed a week of speculators selling gold positions and initiating speculative shorts. Though despite the large gold drop on the COT week (2.4%), the speculative change on the week was relatively minor...
June 17, 2017
Last Friday’s, June 9th, 2017, decline of the tech sector continued into Monday, June 12th, 2017. I expect the NDX to test the range, as illustrated within the red box in the below chart, before continuing higher, but not closing below the red box.
A wild week for stocks as the tech dump lasted more than a day. We’ve stabilized…but charts are showing more downside to come for the Nasdaq in particular. The metals did poorly and continued to slide lower with the sole exception of palladium, which continues to...
Long-term – on major buy signal. Short-term – on mixed signals. Gold sector cycle is down. A major consolidation is in progress and now near completion. We are holding some positions for long-term gains.
June 16, 2017
One of the most important economic debate today is whether the economy will experience reflation or deflation (or low inflation) in the upcoming months. Has the recent reflation been only a temporary jump? Or has it marked the beginning of a new trend? Is the global...
Gold’s ups and downs have grown increasingly tiresome, largely because the rallies are so disappointing and the setbacks so punitive. But look at the bright side: If bullion can hold its own at a time when institutional investors continue to shun it, just think how...
