Gold SWOT: Silver Hits New Record – Will It Continue Its Climb through 2026?

Strengths

• The best-performing precious metal for the past week was platinum, up 19.10%. Platinum is emerging as a clear strength, supported by rising online investment and growing demand for physically backed products as investors seek diversification beyond gold amid persistent macro uncertainty. Tight supply, dwindling above-ground stocks, and platinum’s dual role as both a precious and industrial metal reinforce its appeal as a scarce, under-owned asset in the 2026 metals complex.
• Hochschild Mining forecasted gold production for 2026 at 300,000 to 328,000 gold equivalent ounces, above the consensus estimate of 232,446 ounces. They project all-in sustaining costs per ounce of $2,157 to $2,320, according to Bloomberg.
• Pan American Silver reported preliminary fourth-quarter 2025 production of 7.28 million ounces of silver and 197.8 thousand ounces of gold, exceeding CIBC’s estimates of 6.82 million ounces of silver and 196.5 thousand ounces of gold. The difference was mainly driven by stronger-than-expected performance at Juanicipio, which contributed 2.5 million ounces of lower-cost silver. The price of silver also continued its rise this week, surpassing $100 for the first time, according to Bloomberg.

Weaknesses

• The worst-performing precious metal for the past week was gold, though it was still up 8.37%. Gold continues to show relative strength versus Bitcoin, rallying alongside silver and equities as capital flows toward proven safe havens, while Bitcoin remains range-bound near $90,000. This divergence reinforces gold’s role as the preferred hedge during macro uncertainty, with liquidity, history, and physical scarcity rewarded over “digital gold” narratives.
• South Africa’s gold production fell sharply by 6.0% year-over-year in November, a significant drop from October’s revised 0.3% decline. Structural challenges—including operational disruptions, power constraints, and declining ore grades—continue to weigh on the country’s aging gold sector, according to Statistics South Africa. Broader mining output also disappointed, falling 2.7% year-over-year versus expectations of a 5.0% increase, down from a revised 6.1% gain in October, highlighting downside risks to supply and reinforcing tighter precious metals fundamentals, per Bloomberg.
• Pantoro Gold reported quarterly production of 22,000 ounces, below Canaccord’s 26,000-ounce consensus estimate. All-in sustaining costs were elevated at A$2,571 per ounce versus expectations of A$2,306, reflecting near-term operational and cost pressures. The miss led to a sell-off in Pantoro shares as investors repriced execution risk and margin concerns, even as the broader gold price backdrop remains supportive for producers with steadier delivery and cost control.

Opportunities

• Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold price forecast by more than 10%, citing growing private-sector demand alongside strong central bank and ETF buying. The bank now targets $5,400 an ounce for December 2026, up from $4,900, assuming private investors continue holding gold as a hedge against macro policy risks, according to analysts Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas.
• Gold ETFs saw $5.5 billion in inflows over the past week, largely from North American investors, while European investors continued to reduce silver ETF holdings. Exchange-for-Futures (EFP) differentials remain negative for silver and platinum, reflecting strong demand from non-U.S. markets, according to BMO.
• BMO notes that the Centerra preliminary economic assessment (PEA) outlines a hybrid open-pit and underground operation with a 15-year life of mine starting in 2031. With initial capital of $771 million, the after-tax net present value is $1.1 billion with a 16% internal rate of return, using long-term gold and copper prices of $3,000 per ounce and $4.50 per pound. At current spot prices, the NPV rises to $2.8 billion with a 29% IRR.

Threats

• RBC sees rising risks from higher costs and capital spending, as the current gold price environment expands the pipeline of economically viable projects and intensifies competition for mining services. Companies with exposure to an owner-operator model are expected to be relatively more insulated.
• China’s solar manufacturers, which have struggled with a prolonged glut and price war, now face a new headwind. Silver, used in paste form for electrical contacts in solar panels, has more than tripled in value over the past year, including a 30% surge this month, according to Bloomberg.
• Ghana’s mining industry warned that a government proposal to raise the royalty on gold producers could deter investment. The Ghana Minerals Commission disclosed plans to review the fiscal regime, including a change from the current 3% to 5% fixed royalty to a sliding royalty of 5% to 12%, pegged to bullion prices, as the nation seeks a larger share of revenues from gold’s record-breaking rally, according to Bloomberg.

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