Asian Metals Market Update: U.S. Economic Data In Focus

October 5, 2021

Price of all gold, silver and copper hinges on US economic data releases (other than jobs) and various US September jobs numbers. A slightly better number has already been factored in by the traders. There will be massive short covering rally if US jobs number comes in lower.

Silver will rise. Use crashes in silver to invest. Day traders and weekly traders still have to remain on the sidelines on gold and silver this week. Intraday price moves will be two-way. Physical demand for gold and silver will be on the higher side in Asia. Once again keep a close watch on gold premiums in Singapore. A rising trend in Singapore gold premiums will imply a test of $1810 this week.

In Southern India, gold jewelry demand continues to surprise every week. In Delhi and north India, jewelry demand is expected to rise sharply after 7th October but only if the price does not break $1800. Chinese gold demand unofficial numbers between 1st October and 7th October will also need a close watch.

Crude oil IS rising as nations scramble to increase inventories. Petrol/diesel shortage in UK has caught the world by surprise. China and most nations in the northern hemisphere have started increasing their reserves for winters. Speculators have sharply increased long positions in crude oil as a result. Crude oil will see a big sell-off only if winters are warm and/or US dollar Index gains sharply after nonfarm payrolls.

COMEX GOLD DECEMBER 2021 – current price $1761.95

  • Immediate Support: $1747.10
  • Key Weekly Support: $1719.00
  • Immediate Resistance: $1778.90
  • Key Weekly Resistance: $1810.90
  • Gold has to trade over $1747.10 to rise to $1814.90 and $1840.60.
  • There will be a sell-off only if gold trades below $1747.10 to $1729.60 and $1699.10.

I am giving MCX metals and energies view after a very long period of time. Below is the October monthly views. Price are in Indian Rupees below

MCX Gold December 2021: (previous day close/CMP Rs.46549.00)

  • October Month VIEW: (a) Gold has to trade over 45264 till Diwali on 4th November to rise to 47383 and 47884. (b) Bearish trend or gold will crash if gold does not break 47383 by 4th November to 44204 and 43301.

MCX Silver December 2021:  (previous day close/CMP Rs.60945.00)

  • October Month VIEW: (a) Silver has to trade over 57879 to rise to 63299 and 66022. (b) Silver will crash by 4th October if 63299 is not broken or silver trades below 57879 to 56594, 55936, and 53212. (c) In case, just in case there is another big sell-off of 5000 and more than use to invest for January 2021 with a price target of 68820 and stop loss below 51581.

MCX Crude oil 19th October 2021: (previous day close/CMP Rs.5610.00)

  • October Month VIEW: Crude has resistance between 5733-5885-5900 zone. Crude oil near month futures has to break and trade over this zone to rise to 6064 and 6335.(a) The bearish trend to 5189 and 4807 will be there if crude oil does not break 5900 in October. (b) A daily close of over 5733 for four consecutive days will increase the chances of a 6064 and more in October month. (c) Price moves in crude oil will be sharp two-way.

MCX Natural gas 26th October 2021 (previous day close/CMP Rs.425.40):

  • October Month VIEW:: (a) Momentum is very bullish for natural gas. Ng has to trade over key resistance 463.80 in October month to rise to 502.90, 577.10 and 632.80. (b) Ng needs a daily close below 393.80 for four consecutive days to be in a short-term bearish zone.

MCX Copper 29th October 2021: (previous day close/CMP Rs.709.90)

  • October Month VIEW: (a) Copper has to trade between 683.40-691 zone in October month rise to 728.20, 758.70 and 793.60. (b) Copper will see another big crash if it trades below 683.40 or copper does not even break 728.30.

MCX Zinc 29th October 2021: (previous day close/CMP Rs.254.50)

  • October Month VIEW: Zinc has to trade over 242.50-243.90 zone in October to rise to 269.60 and 286.60. (a) Zinc needs a daily close below 249.60 for four consecutive days to be in a short term bearish zone and fall to 242.50 and 231.70 and 222.40.

MCX Lead 29th October 2021: (previous day close/CMP Rs.184.20)

  • October Month VIEW: Lead has to trade over 168.20-173 zone in October to rise to 195.30 and 208.90. (a) The lead will crash if it falls below the double bottom of 175.40 to 168.20 and 158.10.

MCX Nickel 29th October 2021: (previous day close/CMP Rs.1390.60):

  • October Month VIEW: (a) Nickel has to trade over 1340.50-1368 zone in October month to rise to 1477.50 and 1570.60 and 1668.70. (b) Nickel needs a daily close below 1340.50 for three consecutive days to fall to 1291.40 and 1198.40. (c) Nickel will also crash if 1428.40 initial resistance for October month is mailed.

MCX Aluminum 29th October 2021: (previous day close/CMP Rs.229.05):

  • October Month VIEW: (a) Aluminium has to trade over 221.90 in October to rise to 241.20 and 254.70. (b) It needs a daily close below 221.90 for three consecutive days to be in a short term bearish zone and fall to 206.60.

(PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEES ABOVE)

TO CONCLUDE

Rise in all metals (precious metals and base metals) in October is subject to a break of key resistances. The trend of copper and base metals between 8th October and 15th October is also critical. (one week after China opens).

If technical defies hyper bearish sentiment, then gold will be near 48000 and more by Diwali. Right now gold can rise but it needs to float over 47000 in October month to attract new traders.

As long as silver trades over 56000 in the short term chances of 71000 and more is very high. The next big sell-off will be there only if silver trades below 56000. The next two weeks is very crucial for silver bulls.

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78 percent of the yearly gold supply--is made into jewelry.

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