Bernanke's Conundrum...What It Might Mean For Gold

July 1, 2013

“Central banks sold a record amount of US Treasury debt last week and bond funds suffered the biggest investor withdrawals on record as global markets shuddered at the prospect of the US Federal Reserve ending its quantitiative easing program.”

__

“People are throwing in the towel. It’ll drag the market down lower over the course of the summer.” Markus Rosgen, chief Asia equity strategist at Citigroup

Link

If “people are throwing in the towel” as Mr. Rosgen suggests, Bernanke will find himself in an all-new conundrum quite the opposite of the one in which Alan Greenspan found himself in 2005.

For the Fed, the Treasury debt selling creates a twofold problem:

First, the supply of bonds in the open market will continue to drive up rates. When the goal is to keep rates down, it presents a new kind of conundrum - a Bernanke version the exact opposite of Greenspan’s. Greenspan wanted higher rates. The market gave him lower rates by accelerating its purchases of Treasuries, thus the conundrum. Bernanke wants the exact opposite, that is, lower rates. The market is giving him higher rates by accelerating the sale of U.S. government debt - a conundrum opposite to the one Greenspan encountered. Then and now, the market pundits fret that the Fed is losing (has lost) control of interest rates.

Second, if the world is selling Treasuries, some entity will have to pony up with the purchases of newly-issued U.S. government debt. That entity is the Federal Reserve - the government’s lender of last resort. The new Bernanke conundrum will force the Fed to continue its QE program until such time that other private and public sector buyers of U.S. debt materializes. Ironically, the stock market, like the bond market, might already be reacting to the new rate reality, while gold’s sudden demise, if indeed caused by the so-called “paring down of quantitative easing,” might have been false. If that is the case, a make-up rally could be in the offing.....in fact it might already have been launched.

In an earlier article, I advised that we should take heed of what the Fed does, not what it says. In a certain sense, as you see in the two graphs below, the Federal Reserve may have already launched QE4 while simultaneously talking about ratcheting monetization down. The two graphs together show cause and effect and tell the real story of what is happening at the Fed. For a while, it wasn’t clear why bank reserve credit (QE) was rising. When you marry that chart to 10-year Treasury maturity rates, the reason becomes quite clear. The Fed is battling the market to keep rates low and the government financed at favorable rates.

 

Greenspan’s conundrum

******

Caveat/Disclaimer: This essay is provided for informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. USAGOLD does not engage in short-term trading advice, nor do we encourage speculation. We believe gold coins and bullion should be purchased in physical form as a long-term safe haven.

Michael J. Kosares

Founder – USAGOLD

Author – The ABCs of Gold Investing: How To Protect and Build Your Wealth With Gold




If you would like to broaden your view of gold market, we invite you to sign-up for our regular newsletter and receive quality commentary like what you are now reading. It's free of charge and comes by e-mail. You can opt out at any time.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Denver

Michael J. Kosares is the founder of USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals and the author of "The ABCs of Gold Investing - How To Protect and Build Your Wealth With Gold."

This newsletter is distributed with the understanding that it has been prepared for informational purposes only and the Publisher or Author is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting, financial or other professional services. The information in this newsletter is not intended to create, and receipt of it does not constitute a lawyer-client relationship, accountant-client relationship, or any other type of relation-ship. If legal or financial advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought. The Author disclaims all warranties and any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.

 

Michael J. Kosares has over 40 years’ experience in the gold business. He is the founder and executive director of USAGOLD (both the website and gold brokerage service), the author of three books on the gold market, and the editor of "News, Commentary & Analysis," the firm's client letter. He has written numerous magazine and internet essays and is well-known for his ongoing commentary on the gold market and its economic, political and financial underpinnings. Visit his website at www.usagold.com.

Gold is perfect for use in coins and jewelry as it does not react with air or water like many other metals.

Gold Eagle twitter                Like Gold Eagle on Facebook