Can't Happen Here???

January 14, 2022

It can’t happen here! How many times have I heard that one when I start to explain history to people? I have said to many of these people that “economic law is in effect everywhere in the world EXCEPT here?”

A few years ago, people thought I was crazy when I was warning about what we are seeing right now. The only thing I can say is that my timing may be off, but history has shown how this is most likely to play out.

I have done extensive research on the fall of the Soviet Union, how the hyperinflation of Weimar Germany took place and what happened to make Venezuela, once one of the most prosperous nations in the world, into a place where their currency is destroyed, and supply chains cease to exist.

Our current situation has many similarities to all of these occurrences. I will start with the Soviet Union where the media (state-owned of course) was telling everyone daily how great the economy was doing. People could look around and see that it really wasn’t true, but the lies kept coming- right up until the collapse in 1990. This is not ancient history. There were reports of empty shelves, people starving and waiting in long lines for help as crops were left to decay in the fields because nobody went out to pick them. Alcoholism and drug use surged.

Does that sound at all familiar to what is happening here? How many able-bodied people are just making the decision to sit on the couch or just work part-time and collect government benefits rather than being productive and trying to get ahead? They can keep “printing money” since we are running multi-trillion dollar deficits so we can PRETEND that all is well but the empty shelves and a mis-functioning supply chain (likely only in the early stages and may get FAR worse before getting better) are giving us a glimpse of what may be coming. We are also seeing prices rise faster than at any time in the past 40 years. I believe that we are actually near all-time highs as the government just reported 8.3% inflation year over year this morning BUT if inflation was measured the way it was measured in the 1970s it would be north of 15%. On the other side, real wages are FALLING and first-time unemployment claims are surprising the “experts” to the upside almost every week.

By the way, I DO look at the economic numbers- which most everyone else does not and the economy can only be described as in freefall.

Currently, we have our own propaganda ministry that includes basically the entire mainstream media and the government telling the same tales that the USSR was telling as their economy was being destroyed.

We may have the best technology available in the world but what does it say about us that we have (as of 1-13-2022 according to Marine Traffic Maps) 146 ships that are anchored off American shores and waiting to be unloaded? What does it say about us that we have an IRS that has still not processed all of last years refunds and have a whole ONE person for each 16,000 calls that come in?

I could go on and on about labor problems, etc. but suffice it to say that we have become a lazy, complacent nation instead of a hard-working and thrifty nation. “Money printing” will do that because it DESTROYS the value of LABOR.

Next let’s visit Venezuela where, when Hugo Chavez took over, had massive oil wealth and an economy that was the envy of South America. Over time, old Hugo kicked out the oil companies that were producing the wealth (and had all of the expertise in doing so) and he put his cronies in charge. Not long after, the oil production began to falter and revenues were drastically reduced.

The answer- “Print Money” and pretend that nothing had changed. Over time inflation went from high to hyper and the Bolivian Bolivar became very near WORTHLESS.

This is older information (about 2 years old) but a cup of coffee 10 years ago was 2 Bolivars, 5 years ago it was 100 Bolivars and recently (2 yrs ago) it was 3 MILLION Bolivars for a cup of coffee. By the way, the same report included the information that ONE OUNCE of silver could feed a family of 4 for a month. That is, of course, if there was any food to be found. At least you had a shot!

Unfortunately, here in the USA it appears that those “in charge” are doing the same thing here as the color of one’s skin, their allegiance or their gender is more important than if they can actually do the job. It is REALLY apparent with the current crop of “leaders”- I use that term VERY lightly.

It is apparent that they are “printing” us right into the same conditions that existed only 20 years ago in Venezuela. Again- this has happened hundreds of times in history and has ALWAYS ended in the destruction of the currency of those doing the “printing”.

The only thing I will bring up about Weimar Germany is that their currency crisis (hyperinflation) was brought about by having o pay WW1 reparations and they were “printing” the proceeds. As usual, the “printing” only created the ILLUSION of wealth- nothing tangible and over time the illusion was exposed and reality set in. Prices started to rise, then they started to rise in a more meaningful way and then they exploded. As an example, a loaf of bread in 1918 was ¼ of a Reichsmark. In 1922 it was 3 Reichsmarks. In 1923 the price went from 500 in January to 30 million by September 1923 and 4 BILLION by October 1923. Maybe THAT can’t happen here- at least I hope not but then again WHY could it not happen here?

This is what happens when the public loses faith in the currency.

My belief is that the US Dollar is being destroyed on purpose by those “in charge” to usher in a new system that appears to be all digital. The BIS (Bank of International Settlements-Central Bank of central banks) has made it mandatory for all central banks to have a digital currency by 2025. In addition, China is launching their digital Yuan during the Olympics next month and it has been rumored that the new Fedcoin- or whatever they may call it will likely be introduced in 2023. The ECB has already got a trademark on Eurocoin also.

I hope that some of this information may wake some people up so that they can adequately prepare for what appears to be some pretty rough times coming our way in the near future. Personally, I believe that having the essentials that you need to live are #1. Food, water, medicine, etc. Once that is satisfied then having cash, metals and items to barter with would be good ideas.

I also personally believe in holding hard assets like gold and silver which have held their value for over 5000 years. Notice I didn’t say that the fake paper price that is quoted can’t be volatile but I believe that the VALUE offered by gold, silver and the companies that mine them are off the charts right now.

There are few assets that I can consider cheap at this time. There are also VERY few assets that I don’t have to depend upon someone else making good on their promise to pay me back. By the way, what is the VALUE of a promise that CAN’T be kept???
Be Prepared!

Any opinions are those of Mike Savage and not necessarily of those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information in this report does not purport to be a complete description of securities, markets or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.

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