Elliott Wave Counts For Gold Price, S&P500 And GDX

Gold 

Short-Term Update

Gold continued to move sideways in yesterday’s day session and in the overnight session.  Since then, the market has softened a bit.

Generally, we continue to work on the assumption that this market has completed our condensed wave .iv. Triangle, and that we are now rallying in wave .v., as shown on the Daily Gold Chart.

A break of the wave *d* high of 1357.60 would a first good confirmation that this condensed Triangle formation is complete at the 1309.20 low, but only a break of the 1377.50 high would eliminate any possibility that gold is following our alternate expanding triangle pattern.

The expanding triangle alterative(red lines) is now our only alternate. If gold follows the expanded triangle option it will trade sideways for the next month or so.

Longer-Term Update

We are still trying to break above our long-term trend line. We suspect if we do that then we should expect a sharp thrust higher that should take us to the 1525.00/1550.00 level, before all of wave -i- ends. 

Active Trading Positions: Long 20 positions, with puts at 1250.00.

S&P500

Short Term Update

The S&P500 was lower yesterday and in the overnight session the S&P Futures were up about 5 points, at the time that this Post was being written.

We are working on the idea that a major top in the S&P occurred at the failure high of 2186.96, and that we have already completed wave .i. of a new bear market at the 2119.12 low.

Unless wave .ii. is becoming more complex, it is now complete at the 2179.99 high. If this analysis is correct, then we expect a very sharp drop in the S&P500, within wave .iii. has now begun.

Our current count for new bear market is:  

.i. = 2119.12;

.ii.:

*a* = 2163.30

*b* triangle = 2139.57

*c* = 2179.99, if complete to complete all of wave .ii..

.iii. drop after wave .ii. ends.

Projections for the end of wave .iii. are:

.iii. = 1.618.i. = 2070.22;

.iii. = 2.618.i. = 2020.63.

We will also be adding to our short positions on a break of the 2119.00 low.                                                                                                       

Long Term Update

A major top in the S&P may now be at hand, at the 2186.96 high.

Active Trading Positions: Short with 2170 calls as stops, and will be adding to our short positions at 2118.00

GDX

Short-Term Update:

The GDX was lower in yesterday’s trading session, but we still expect if our current analysis is correct we have started wave –iii- of (iii) higher.    

As you can see on the Daily GDX, it looks like wave -i- of (iii) is complete at the 28.70 high and wave-ii- probably ended at the 25.56 low. If this analysis is correct, then we should expect a sharp rally in wave -iii- as the next big event in this market.      

Our current count for count for all of wave iii is:

(i) = 20.73;

(ii):

-a- = 27.45;

-b- = 31.79;

-c- = 25.17, to complete all of wave (ii);

(iii):

-i- = 28.70;

-ii- = 25.56:

-iii- rally is now underway.

Our first projection for the end of wave (iii) is:

(iii) = 1.618(i) = 39.39.

Long-Term Update

We have now completed wave (ii) of iii at 25.17 and are about to start a very powerful wave (iii) of iii rally.

Active Trading Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, CRJ, and TSX:XGD with no stops!

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