Gold Bugs Gone But Not Forgotten

May 16, 2018

As a recovering Gold bug I have great sympathy for what die-hard bitcoin fans are about to experience. Years and years of grinding lower with the occasional wicked spikes up that bear markets are known for.

Don’t get me wrong– I’m with the minarchists (e.g. Libertarians) and anarcho-capitalists in my excitement for crypto-currencies and their ability to transact anonymously not to mention their portability allowing you to move your entire net worth across national boundaries with a click of a mouse button. But with the crypto-mania having its blow-off top along with the retail public buying bitcoin it’s clear the top is in for now and it’s time to move onto the next big thing.

So what about the original alternate currency- Gold? And more importantly the leveraged gold investment play- the HUI Gold Bugs Index? The good news is I believe the major low is in. Why do I think that? Take a look at the attached long term chart where we missed our clear d target. Without giving away too much of Rick’s proprietary system one thing I like about this chart is the short and unintuitive B-C leg and then the subsequent interactions with P, P2 and d.

The bad news is that we are still not ready for prime-time. The inset chart shows a possible P2 target of 155.77 which coincidentally happens to be near the low made in Nov-Dec 2016.  Taking out this low by a few dollars should be enough to freak everyone out that the bottom will fall out. Experienced pivoteers won’t be afraid to buy this low. When the next leg up in gold takes us to $2500 and higher we will look back at this coming low in gold stocks as the buy of a lifetime.

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In 1792 the U.S. Congress adopted a bimetallic standard (gold and silver) for the new nation's currency - with gold valued at $19.30 per troy ounce