Nothing Is As It Seems

Stock markets showed some weakness on Wednesday…and then Thursday saw that weakness confirmed. Consequently, I locked in all my swing trading profits from the last couple of weeks, expecting further downside and about a week for a low to be established.

Lo and behold, Friday saw a massive reversal higher and closed strongly. Therefore, this weekend will be full of research to figure out what to do if the low is in…or if we have further to fall.

It’s too bad to have been shaken out of my positions, but profits can disappear in this type of market so quickly that it’s best to lock gains in while you still have them.

Friday’s strength totally caught me off guard -- and was not at all what the action and charts were telling me would happen…but it happens. The unexpected happens all the time -- and all we can do is recognize it and react quickly.

The metals tried to break lower a couple times this past week…but could not.  And now they are back to the upper end of the channel. If something can’t move higher, it often moves lower and the reverse is true…in this case for gold, who it’s not quite ready to look for a major low down around $1,000.

Gold gained a strong 2.81% for the week after trying to breakdown. If something tries to breakout but can’t, chances are it will fall and vice versa as we saw with gold the past couple of weeks.

Gold just isn’t ready to fall to the major support area at $1,000 yet. We saw a strong move just back into the channel above $1,060 Thursday…followed by a massive high volume day Friday to fuel it above the very significant level at $1,080. The next resistance area is once again $1,100. Very strong action to be sure, but the dominant trend still remains down for now.

I thought we were on track to hit major lows near $1,000 this year. Moreover, we still could. However, this strength may distort that view for now.

Only time will tell but the fact remains. I still do not think a major low is yet in place. However, this strength will surely spark many articles over the weekend telling you the opposite, as usual.

Silver gained a very nice 3.38% this past week -- and is also back above the channel on its way to the next resistance level at $14.80. Great action on nice volume for sure…but there is still a lot of work for silver to do in proving a major low is in place. I am still looking for the $10 area as a major low level that must be hit.

Platinum gained a very respectable 5.41% on the week. We’re now on the way to the $900 resistance level, where we’ve got to see how things act.

As always, platinum follows gold and silver so we have to cue off those.

Palladium rose 3.30% for the week -- and is also acting great. In this regard I do not think a major low is in for the leading metals -- and as such, palladium likely is not done falling either.

Obviously, metals and stocks are sloppy…and could go either way. But the more I look at charts this weekend, the more I think we do have more of a correction to go, even though it appears metals temporarily have a bit more room to go on the upside.

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