Is The Pullback Over

Elliot Wave Technical Analyst & author @ Elliott Wave Trader
July 26, 2016

First published Sat Jul 23 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net:  Much has been written over the last several months about the metals market. In fact, I have seen an explosion in the number of people who are providing their “opinion” about this market, most of whom I have never heard from in the prior four years. But, you know what they say about opinions . . . they are just like an anus - everyone has one and most of them stink.

So, I would like for you to contemplate some of my favorite quotes about “opinions:”

“Your assumptions are your windows on the world. Scrub them off every once in a while, or the light won't come in.”   Isaac Asimov

“Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions." Albert Einstein

While many of you believe I am providing you my “opinion” on the market, I am not sure that is an accurate depiction of what I do.  Rather, I provide you with my “read” on what market sentiment is doing, and as we acquire more information about market sentiment, I can provide you with a more accurate and detailed perspective. 

Since most people view their “opinions” as an extension of who they are, and many even feel it is an affront to their ego to change their opinion, I maintain no such “feelings.” For those that have followed me for any length of time, you understand that I will NEVER remain steadfast in my “read” of the market should the market provide me with further information to tell me my initial read was wrong. 

This past week was a case in point.  While we came into the week with an expectation of looking higher, the market gave us clues that we may have to change our short term expectations.  For those that have followed my analysis over time, you know that I will only listen to what the market tells me.  And, if the market tells me that it wants to divert a bit from our prior plan, it would be foolish for us to don blinders, rather than adjust. 

So, on Monday and Tuesday, as the market began to set up for a potential move down, I sent several Wave Alerts noting the set up.  And, the market did follow through on this downside set up on Wednesday exactly as we outlined it on Monday and Tuesday (and even struck our 2.00 extension target of 27.80 to the penny), which was the first time in the last seven months wherein the market actually followed through on such a downside set up.

But, the more important point I am trying to make is that one must recognize that financial markets are not linear systems, which is why so many view them as unpredictable.  But, as I have noted in the past, it is a rare event where the market sees a sizeable move without the set up for that move being evident before such move takes place.  One just has to know where and how to look.

While I still maintain my primary larger degree expectation that we are on our way to our higher targets noted over the last several weeks, the drop has finally caused me to place an alternative count on our chart, which is represented by the GDX blue count.  Again, while I want to reiterate that my primary perspective is to still be looking up, I am going to recognize the possibility that we go down a bit more early in the upcoming week before the next rally takes hold, as presented on the 8 minute GDX chart. 

Moreover, I still maintain the potential for seeing a lower low than what was struck earlier this year at an estimated 25% probability, at least in my humble opinion.  So, I will be viewing the market from the perspective of bullish wave counts unless the market tells me otherwise.  And, should it tell me otherwise, you can be certain you will receive a mid-week update from me as soon as I see it, and without delay.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the GDX, GLD and YI at https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/scharts/Charts-on-GDX-GLD-YI-201607261325.html  .

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education. You can contact Avi at: [email protected].


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