Skeptical About Gold's Rally

November 17, 2014

GCZ14 daily

On Twitter early Friday morning, I was throwing in the towel on Gold at the very instant Comex futures went bonkers. Technically speaking, the surge in the December contract $1.20 shy of an 1194.10 target that could have been extrapolated from the previous Friday’s impulsive spike. I remain skeptical, but if buyers are able to push the futures past the target, and thence — without correcting — past a small peak on the hourly chart at 1202.80, I’d need to put my skepticism aside, at least for the time being.

Gold’s rallies have often erupted when I was at my personal threshold of despair — but also from lows that, technically speaking, were just a tick or two from actual breakdowns (as was the case Friday morning). Whatever happens, we should keep in mind that each and every one of those rallies for the last 3+ years has been little more than a bear tease.

According to the technical method I use — my own system — turning the daily chart bullish in a way that would suggest a decisive end to the long bear market would require the December Comex — currently trading for around 1189.10 — to hit 1297.70. Moreover, the rally would need to be uncorrected once the peak at 1255.60 recorded on October 21 has been exceeded.

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