A Yellow Warning Flag For Gold Miners

October 25, 2016

A bull-trap reversal hit the green line, putting a 20.24 downside target theoretically in play.  Accordingly, we should look to trade the ETF with a bearish bias. That implies you could either look to get short now via camouflage, or wait until GDX trips a ‘mechanical’ short after the green line has been breached decisively for several bars. Thereafter, it is the rally back up to the green line that would get us short 'mechanically.'

Alternatively, it would take a rally to at least 27.26 to turn the daily chart back to bullishly impulsive.  Some of you may have noticed that GDX is also on a ‘counterintuitive’ buy signal triggered at 24.92 last week. We can use it later if there’s a strong pop above it today or tomorrow, since that would improve the odds of a rally to as high as 32.16. Otherwise, today’s bearish price action demands caution.

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The first use of gold as money occurred around 700 B.C., when Lydian merchants (western Turkey) produced the first coins