Gold’s Short Strut Has Been Anything But

Gold’s (yes still) ongoing weekly parabolic Short trend was initially triggered on Monday, 12 May upon price trading down through 3243 (at 07:23 GMT).  ‘Twas confirmed by that week’s end, price opening on Monday, 19 May at 3220.  Since then, here is Gold’s continuous contract by the hour, replete with its regression channel:

Why, even you WestPalmBeachers down there can see that price — rather than falling as is the rule within a Short trend — has instead been rising as is the exception.  However, for some two years, such Short trends have mostly been short-lived, pun intended.

To wit:  across the past 94 weeks from that ending 01 September 2023 (Gold then 1966) through yesterday (Gold now 3453), 70 weeks have been within Long trends versus just 24 under Short trends.  And Gold having settled this past week as noted at 3453 — by the continuous contract an All-Time Daily & Weekly Closing High — such price is +76% above where ’twas on that date just 22 months ago.  ‘Tis a beautiful thAng.  Or as we’ve oft quipped and embedded in the above chart:  “Shorting Gold is a bad idea.”

‘Course, whilst currency debasement is the primary driver of Gold, ramped-up geo-political jitters again abound, stressed by ISR/IRN on top of both ISR/PSE and RUS/UKR.  Plus later today StateSide come coast-to-coast protests versus the policies of the Executive Branch and its display of military might.

So with all that in mind, we go to Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from a year ago-to-date, wherein we see a fifth rightmost Short trend red dot:

Because this Short trend technically (barely) is still in force, we again acknowledge the 2973-2844 support zone.  Nonetheless, the distance to flip the Short trend back Long is a mere +27 points above here at the 3840 level.  And given Gold’s expected weekly trading range is 152 points, (the daily alone now 62 points) the flip ought come quickly, even per an opening up gap on Monday should geo-political tensions escalate through this weekend.  Thus we’re just about there.

“But as you usually say, mmb, price spikes on geo-politics don’t last very long…”

True enough, Squire.  Yet should the trend flip to Long in the new week, reflipping it back to Short wouldn’t initially occur until 3123 trades, some -330 points below present price.  More importantly:  an imminent flip to Long puts a fresh All-Time High above 3510 squarely on the near-term table for Gold:  ’tis just +57 points from here.  So much for the Shorts singin’ “I’m struttin’ my stuff, y’all…” –[Elvin Bishop, ’75].  (Albeit we ought not disparage the Shorts as they accommodate taking the other side of the trade).

Further for those of you scoring at home, through this year’s 24 trading weeks-to-date, Gold is now +31%, this last week’s gain being third-best by both percentage (+3.7%) and points (+122 points) as depicted in the above graphic.  Too, per the website’s “Gold” and “Market Rhythms” pages, Gold’s best Rhythm through its last ten iterations from 03 April-to-date has been the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) on price’s eight-hour series.  (But try not to get carried away).

If anything ought be carried away (on a stretcher) ’tis the Economic Barometer.  As herein penned a week ago:  “…the Econ Baro reached its lowest level in nearly 16 years…”

Still, we’ve this from the “Taking the Good with the Bad Dept.”:  as the economy by the Baro is slowing — indeed outright shrinking — inflation for May as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics cooled; (May’s “Fed-favoured” PCE is not due until 27 June).  Thus the “s” word “stagflation” is not (as yet?) being made “officially” apparent, even if ’tis evident by your own personal engagement in commerce.  We certainly sense it:  the base cost of our triannual purchase of popping corn from the States (as ever so detailed in Gold Update No. 803 from this past 05 April) just increased +10.1% before shipping, tariff and value-added tax.  Yet at least The University of Michigan’s “Go Blue!” Sentiment Survey for June reached a three-month high, (but we can’t see why):

‘Course the true sentiment gainers — certainly so of late — are the precious metals.  Below we’ve the daily bars across the past three months-to-date for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right.  The baby blues depicting day-to-day trend consistency have spritely leapt higher for both metals in recent weeks.  Regardless, in just the past few days, the yellow metal has garnered more of a geo-political bid than has the white metal, (lest we forget that in the week prior, Sweet Sister Silver gained +9.4% as opposed to just +0.5% for Gold).  Either way, both look great, all told:

Too, life is good near Profile highs.  For both Gold (below left) and Silver (below right) we’ve their price ranges for the past fortnight as depicted by volume, the most heavily traded levels as labeled, and the white bars being Friday’s respective settles:

And so toward the wrap here’s The Gold Stack:  what can be better than that?

The Gold Stack
Gold’s Value per Dollar Debasement, (from our opening “Scoreboard”):  3825
Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
2025’s High:  3510 (22 April 2025)
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Long:  3480
10-Session directional range:  up to to 3467 (from 3314) = +153 points or +4.6%
Gold’s All-Time Closing High:  3453 (13 June 2025)
Trading Resistance:  none per the Profile
Gold Currently:  3453, (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]:  62 points)
Trading Support:  notables by the Profile 3445 / 3399 / 3380 / 3351
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet:  3385
The 300-Day Moving Average:  2721 and rising
2025’s Low:  2625 (06 January)
The 2000’s Triple-Top:  2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000:  1900+
The Final Frontier:  1800-1900
The Northern Front:  1800-1750
On Maneuvers:  1750-1579
The Floor:  1579-1466
Le Sous-sol:  Sub-1466
The Support Shelf:  1454-1434
Base Camp:  1377
The 1360s Double-Top:  1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland:  The Whiny 1290s
The Box:  1280-1240

Come this Wednesday (18 June), the Federal Open Market Committee delivers its next Policy Statement.  Expectations call for the FOMC voting to continue maintaining the target range for its Funds Rate at 4.25%-to-4.50% regardless of the faltering Econ Baro and Q1 annualized GDP shrinkage of -0.2%.  However as you no doubt recall, the bugaboo coupled to that latter figure was the Q1 Chain Deflator of +3.7% … Ouch!  May’s inflation may have cooled, but given economic shrinkage, is there still stagflation linkage?  Perhaps rather than order popcorn by the pack, we ought do so by the pallet…  

…and thus keep more Gold and Silver in the wallet!

Cheers!

…m…

www.TheGoldUpdate.com
www.deMeadville.com
and now on “X”:  @deMeadvillePro

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