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Gold Flexes Its Sinews As Toward Our Target The S&P500 Continues

Market Analyst & Author
December 23, 2018

Gold Update Score board

And the winner of this year's Santa Claus Rally is: Gold!

A little holiday cheer there, emphasis on the word little. For in settling out the week yesterday (Friday) at 1259, 'tis a price hardly about which to be excited, the big reason being the above Gold Scoreboard's valuation level of 2857. But to quote Marty Feldman in the role of Igor: "Could be worse; could be raining." --(Young Frankenstein, 20th Century Fox, '74). Immediately after which came the rain.

To be sure, Gold has been having a decent up run. In fact for you dot counters out there, below in the chart of Gold's weekly bars the rightmost rising blue dots of parabolic Long trend now number 15. Where does that rank contextually? There've been 38 Long trends since the turn of the millennium, the duration of this current one at present in a tie for 10th; (five have endured 20 or more weeks). And as long as Gold doesn't break under The Box (1240-1280) by year-end, this trend shall stand alone in the Top 10. But again in measuring Gold's entire trading range from 01 January 2001-to-date (255-to-1953), today at 1259 price ranks only in the 60th percentile, (the supply of Dollars of course being in their 99th percentile). Here are the bars and trends across the past year:

Specific to this past week, Gold toured much of The Box (1240-1280) reaching as high as 1270. Our rumination a week ago still holds that Gold likely wraps up the year inside the safety and serenity of The Box. But to unwrap the gift which finds Gold atop The Box shan't find it being returned to the store for exchange, (and certainly not for bits**t). Moreover, the annoying fact of the past week was Silver's inability to keep pace with Gold, the white metal all but "unch" in gaining 0.41% versus the yellow metal's gaining 1.35%. No sporting of precious metal pinstripes early on in this holiday season for our Sister Silver, her instead resigned to wearing her industrial metal jacket aside Cousin Copper. Further, so narrow seems Silver's trading range these days that she's not departed the 14s for 26 consecutive sessions (since 14 November). Hence the nearly record-high Gold/Silver ratio reading of 85.7x.

'Course, talk is that Gold is benefitting from "the fear trade" affirmed in part by the Federal Open Market Committee's not-so-dovish interest rate rise stance in the face of the ever-sinking Economic Barometer as we see here, (the red line being the S&P500), from a year ago-to-date:

And of course the more the Econ Baro unravels, the closer (albeit slowly) ought come the FOMC's realization to rescind rate rises ultimately leading Gold's return to "the debasement trade" should debt assets also then be bought anew, "Happy QE to You!"

But in the interim, the stock market is feeling the damage. "Nuthin' but Fed!" they say. "Nuthin' 'bout Earnings!" we say, or their lack thereof. The S&P 500 pre-election (08 November 2016) settled at 2140, our "live" price/earnings ratio that day being 33.2x. 'Twas way too high then. Today with the Index at 2417, the "live" p/e -- even accounting for the corporate tax rate cut -- is way too high at 35.3x.

As for the present correction, you may recall our piece from earlier this year on 10 February entitled: "Gold's Mild Descent; S&P to Drop 25%" Then come 22 September with a new all-time high for the S&P of 2940, we revised the projected drop to 27%, the targeted price (still near the pre-election results level of 2140) being 2154 (which was a resistance peak in the days leading up to the election). Thus for those of you scoring at home, the bad news is the S&P is now -18% from that all-time high; the good news is that the correction (ultimately to 2154) has now already run a full two-thirds of its course. Add ole ex-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's warning to investors this past Tuesday to " for cover..." and we've got the whole correction package. So as to put its percentage corrections in visual context, here's the logarithmic track of the S&P 500 since 2000. The "candles" are monthly and the red line is our 2154 target:

"And if you're wrong, mmb?"

So be it, Squire, and may the financial world then breath a sigh of relief. Our concern -- as we've noted of late with so many folks just now jumping on the correction bandwagon -- is being wrong about 2154 not holding such that it gets worse. We saw a published prediction yesterday for "SPY (NYSE:SPY) 200" which would be S&P 2000; that in turn can open the door to a re-test of the 2016 low at 1810; and 'tis been perused within our own Investors Roundtable that we'll see a correction of at least 50%. We'll modestly stick with our 2154 target.

For Gold, with but five trading days remaining in 2018, we see price finishing as noted somewhere in The Box (1240-1280). That 40-point slab has these past six years has been the focal point 'round which Gold has traded: so much so that if one had the foresight to only buy below The Box and only sell above it -- with price therein centered today at 1259 -- one's wealth would exceed that of the gross domestic product across a variety of the world's smaller nations -- were it only so easy. The point is: to escape the bounds, or better still the magnetism, of The Box necessitates some material fundamental push, which for the upside means completing the move to Base Camp 1377, a twice tried-and-failed attempt over the past three years. But is it finally time this time to so do? Let's zoom in on Gold.

To wit, here is our two-panel graphic of the daily bars from three months ago-to-date for Gold on the left and for Silver on the right. And specific to the baby blue dots of linear regression trend consistency, a week ago we were bemoaning their having run out of puff. Now a week hence with Gold having flexed its sinews, the "Baby Blues" have regained some grippity:

As for their respective 10-day Market Profiles, for Gold (left) to stay buoyed within The Box (1240-1280) the near-term supporter stands stark at 1251. And that for Silver (right) with barely a few bars in her narrow Profile is at present on the 14.70 support level:

So into Christmas Week we go, following which in a week's time we'll reveal our gift to you of next year's Gold forecast high. And to give you a hint, given Gold's not materially having traveled anywhere this past year, you can well guess what that forecast shall be. In the interim, our Golden Christmas Wishes to Everyone Everywhere!


Mark Mead Baillie

Mark Mead Baillie has had an extensive business career beginning in banking and financial services for two years with Banque Nationale de Paris to corporate research for three years at Barclays Bank and then for six years as an analyst and corporate lender with Société Générale.
For the last 22 years he has expanded his financial expertise by creating his own financial services company, de Meadville International, which comprehensively follows his BEGOS complex of markets (Bond/Euro/Gold/Oil/S&P) and the trading of the futures therein. He is recognized within the financial community of demonstrating creative technical skills that surpass industry standards toward making highly informed market assessments and his work is featured in Merrill Lynch Wealth Management client presentations.  He has adapted such skills into becoming the popular author each week of the prolific “The Gold Update” and is known in the financial website community as “mmb” and “deMeadville”.
Mr. Baillie holds a BS in Business from the University of Southern California and an MBA in Finance from Golden Gate University.

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