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Bear's Lair

Bear Markets always follow Bull markets and a severe stock market correction is long overdue. Bears Lair will spot, monitor and analyze the stock market correction as it develops.

 

Stocks were flat Friday, May 24th in light volume pre-holiday trading.

A great week once again but for different reasons than of late.  While we had some amazing gains recently, the key way booking those gains.  It’s sometimes easy to get on board but knowing when to exit is just as important.  Profi

There are monumental ramifications to China's dire and urgent necessity to buy gold to diversity foreign reserves.

Two weeks ago we looked at the difference between gold ETF outflows vs. physical gold purchases, and showed that most sales were coming from the former while aggressive buying was coming from the latter.

Central Gold Reseves By Country

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve



TLT (US T-Bond Proxy) Possible Rally Chart

Much has been made about the drop in COMEX gold stocks. COMEX gold stocks have fallen from 11.1 million ounces in the end of 2012 to just under 8 million ounces today.

This has been one of the worst stretches for gold and silver pricewise in quite some time, no secret there.  I have to go back to when silver was in single digits to find a comparable period.   The question on precious metals inve

You know that gold bear market that the financial press keeps touting? The one George Soros keeps proclaiming? Well, it is not there. The gold bear market is disinformation that is helping elites acquire the gold.

There are several indications that the currency war is heating up, the gloves are coming off and new players are piling into the barroom brawl.

China has signaled it is going to propose plans this year to allow freer flows of the Yuan both in and out of the nation as part of measures to loosen control over the Yuan and interest rates.

Billionaire hedge fund manager, David Tepper, made news this week when he emphatically stated that investors have nothing at all to fear regarding the eventual tapering off of Fed’s $85 billion worth of monthly debt monetization.

In a recent post, The Pull from the Future, I discussed how any sort of quantitative model based on statistics, earnings, GDP -- really any extrapolation of past data into the future -- is just not a viable method for forecasting

The gold market was smashed as you can see by the collapsing red line which occurred at 6 P.M. Sunday May 19. As far as I am concerned nothing in the bullish picture has been violated. What is meaningful is on the following pages.

After the 1929 crash, the US Treasury & the Fed worked together.  They revalued gold, and began a program of Quantitative Easing (QE).

Let’s take a look at a few graphs of the dollar, from Feb 1, 2013 through Friday May 17, 2013. Yes, I said graphs of the dollar. I’ve priced the dollar in gold first (of course), then silver, the euro, and even the yen.

1. Huge rallies begin from these conditions

I used to half joke with some of my investing friends that the best time to buy stocks is during or right after a crash.  Think 1987, 2000-2002, 2008-09, and now perhaps Gold Miners??

I read a piece this morning by Josh Brown, the Reformed Broker, in which he destroys the 1999 comparison for the stock market.

Gold’s Bull market from 1999 is not over. The decline from September 2011 is a two year correction inside a multi-decade Bull Market Rally. This corrective decline is finishing now.

The US government usually admits to "price inflation" of about 2%/year. As far as we can tell, the actual rate is probably at least 5%/year, but no more than 7%/year. Let's say 5%/year for the sake of argument.

When volatility prevails in the gold market, I love seeing so many different opinions because it promotes critical thinking and healthy markets.

Global gold demand for the first quarter of 2013 declined both in terms of tonnage (-13%) and dollars (-16%).

Imagination was given to man to compensate him for what he is not, and a sense of humor was provided to console him for what he is.


— Oscar Wilde

The levitating stock markets continue to seductively entrance traders, powering to new nominal record highs day after day after day.  No one believes a meaningful selloff is even possible anymore, thanks to the vast deluge of cent

Once upon a time, an entity called the “World Gold Council” was created. It was supposed to be an industry trade-group, which (like all industry trade-groups) promotes the health and growth of their industry.

The latest World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends report shows that the gold market is driven by diverse global demand, and the appetite for owning gold jewelry, bars and coins continues to grow.

As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information

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