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Bear's Lair

Bear Markets always follow Bull markets and a severe stock market correction is long overdue. Bears Lair will spot, monitor and analyze the stock market correction as it develops.


The market environment . .

Deflation and policy makers' attempts to defeat it:

Most economists and financial journalists continue to misidentify the meaning of the fall in the U.S. dollar price of gold. That price has plummeted from about $300 per ounce a year ago to near $250 recently.

It's the proverbial "eleventh hour" in this 17-year-old bull market and the manipulators are out in force.

Quiescent Federal Reserve gradualism . .

Wow, it was another wild and difficult week for the bear camp. The Dow was largely unchanged, gaining 15 points, while the S&P 500 rose about 1%.

The following excerpted material is important for understanding the way many view U.S. stocks today:

Ian Gordon is a broker with a major Canadian brokerage firm. Admittedly, he is not a household name - at least not yet. That might change if he is reading the current stock market cycle properly.

Gold stocks: the next Internet boom!

Several years ago in an essay on gold ("The Golden Sextant"), I pointed out that gold is arbitraged like currencies, which is to say on the basis of interest rate differentials.

Taking a breather . .

IT HAS been almost a year to the day since the stock market went into a brief but steep decline, falling 20 percent in just six weeks and giving Wall Street its first whiff of real fear since the October 1987 crash.

The exact wording of a key portion of the Fed's official statement following its June 30 Federal Open Market Committee meeting read: "...the FOMC has chosen to adopt a directive that includes no predilection about near term policy

In its aspiration for a new and perfect world, the New Age Movement believes that there will have to be a "paradigm shift", which will change the conventional way of thinking.

Optimism ahead of Yahoo! . . . probably enhanced the late Wednesday market tone, though it's not something that impacted the futures, given the low premium at day's end.

The stock bubble of 1999 constitutes perhaps the most dangerous, speculative investment climate ever.

Money is generally thought of, if at all, in practical terms: how to get it, what to do with it.

WANTED: Greenspan (FRB), Camdessus (IMF) and Eddie George (BOE) for premeditated murder of American Farming


Good evening:

Reliability studies conducted by the Bullish Review across 36 futures markets from 1983 to 1989 show that extremely long or short positions by hedgers CORRECTLY FORECASTED significant market moves 67% of the time.

In this week's commentary we will address a topic that has been foremost in our minds for the past several days and has even been suggested by other stock market commentators of late.

I have been attempting to consolidate my notes that I have taken from various articles and comments posted by participants of this Forum in regards to The Dollar (should read as The FED), The Euro and Gold.

Aggregate "blue chip" stock prices remain significantly above the long term average. The current trailing PE for the S&P500 is 35 times earnings.

Seesaw behavior . . . characterized Wednesday's alternating action, with the S&P low exactly that we looked for on the morning 900.933.GENE hotline call.

After experiencing a long losing streak throughout the last part of May and most of June the broad U.S. stock market staged an impressive rally on June 16 in a much-needed show of strength.

Sage Crystl: Sage is proud to introduce Mr. David Tice, Portfolio Manager for the Prudent Bear Fund. Thanks for joining us today David.

GENERAL COMMENTS: Monday's modest 70-point rally in the Dow was enough to tweak a bear's ugliest suspicions about the stock market's underlying health.

Megalomania or common sense? Those are factors to consider when evaluating Thursday's testimony by Chairman Greenspan; especially the part that focused on the ability of modern day monetary authorities to intervene

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