Elliott Wave theorists (and there a lot of technical chartists that follow their work too) argue that gold still needs to put in one last low price before it can be said to have completed the classic wave formation and then power upwards in a big price spike. If so...
Gold Editorials & Commentary
January 29, 2015
In the past [even the recent past] investors have often ‘parked’ their funds in a ‘safe-haven’ currency, when fears about the dollar or other currencies rose. The leading candidates have always been the Swiss Franc and the Yen, with gold, in the last three years...
GOLD DAILY - As expected, we should see some chop, then a top. This may take several weeks. The $1,350 level should contain price and momentum for now. I’m looking for divergences to develop as a top forms. In the Example Portfolio (EP), we are looking for a low...
“The coming European monetary crack-up is rooted in the fact that the ECB’s financial repression and ZIRP policies have—like everywhere else—-destroyed honest price discovery in Europe’s massive sovereign debt market. There is no other way to explain the...
Latest statistics from the USGS make for interesting reading – not because they show U.S. gold output has been continuing to fall – it’s down 7.4% year on year to date – but for the country by country export data. We have been commenting on Mineweb.com for much of...
January 28, 2015
U.S. gold exports to Hong Kong and China jumped significantly in October. Not only were U.S. gold exports strong in October, they were the second highest for the year. Shipments of gold out of the U.S. spiked in January, declined in February and March and remained...
In my previous missive, I tried to illustrate the supply side of gold and how the movements of inventory have recently changed. In this part, we will look more to the demand side with a wrap up of why it truly matters “whether the gold is there” or not.
In the closing months of 2014, on numerous occasions the position was put forth that as the days of January stacked up, toward the end of the month and going into February, that the global financial structures would show severe strain, widespread disruptions, and...
At 750 tonnes, HK gold exports to China were down 32% year on year, but how important in reality are these HK figures nowadays in terms of total Chinese demand?
January 27, 2015
For over 30 years, sovereign nations, particularly in the West have been buying votes by offering social payments in the form of welfare, Medicare, social security, and the like. When actual bills came due to fund this stuff, Governments quickly discovered that...
I am hard pressed to find a single article calling for lower lows in the metals. Everywhere I look, there is consistent certainty that the final lows have been struck, and the bull market is back in full force. To me, market sentiment can be summed up with a Yogi-...
The breakdown of the major indices for the economy is telling us something fundamental and what is Wall Street doing? They are just ignoring the signs on the wall, whilst the facts are right in their face, either because they don’t want to believe it or because they...
"Is the gold really there?” This is truly the question of all questions and at the core of everything that’s about to come! Before getting into the topic itself, it is worth breaking the simple question itself down and into parts. What gold? Whose gold? And Where?...
Gold was down 1.72 percent at the end of 2014, but things are looking up for the yellow metal. Last week I returned from presenting at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, where sentiment for gold was through the roof.
Russia and surprisingly the Netherlands were the largest central bank buyers in December – accumulating a significant 30.34 tonnes between them as currency wars intensify. Demand for gold as a diversification and monetary asset continues to be very robust and...
Weakening confidence in currencies, central banks, and governments will focus attention upon real money, the money that has survived for thousands of years BEFORE AND AFTER the era of central bank promises, lies, manipulations, and monetary stimulation.
January 26, 2015
In our opinion speculative short positions (half) are currently justified from the risk/reward perspective. Gold’s rally took place along with the U.S. dollar’s rally and this was encouraging for gold bulls, but gold’s reaction after the 1,140 billion euro QE...
I’ve mentioned my background as a professional engineer in the energy business. I enjoy the mathematics of Elliott Wave Theory (EWT). Studying the wave is not a chore. It’s a joy, especially when EWT suggests something big and bullish is about to happen, with...
We have already suggested that falling oil and other raw materials prices may be the canary in the coalmine. The gold is, however, not only a commodity, but also a currency, so the yellow metal does not have to fall during bear market in commodities. Nevertheless,...
The four major monetary zones have collectively printed over $40 trillion currency units (call them dollars if you want) over the last 6-7 years. Most agree that about 180,000 tons of gold exist above ground.
There has been some discussion about how the Swiss National Bank breakaway from the 1.20 peg to the Euro was a shot to the upside for gold. It appeared to us that the rally may have been sparked a few days ahead of the announcement, and last week’s mostly sideways...
Over the many years that I have been writing about the commodity futures markets, I have tried to make a point of homing in on the fact that it is the presence of high-powered speculative money flows that drive market action.
January 25, 2015
The US Dollar rally, combined with the ECB’s policies are at risk of blowing up a $9 trillion carry trade. When the Fed cut interest rates to zero in 2008, it flooded the system with US Dollars. The US Dollar is the reserve currency of the world. NO matter what...
Whether or not the Swiss National Bank was the "first domino to fall" remains to be seen. With central banks in Denmark, Turkey, India, Peru, and Canada all lowering rates and China pumping $8 billion into its banking system via a reverse repo operation, it's clear...
The recent rise in the gold price, now standing at just below the $1300 mark, does not yet appear to have put a dent in Chinese gold demand as represented by withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). Indeed it appears to be picking up even further in the...
SPX found enough resistance at its previous short-term high of 2064 to put a halt to the strong rally which started at 1988. Friday’s retracement does not look complete and it’s now a question of whether the bears will be able to muster enough strength to regain...
Equities past their peak? Bond market dead? So where do investors go looking for returns? Eric Coffin suggests gold, both bullion and stocks. In this interview with The Gold Report, the publisher of Hard Rock Analyst explains how changes in the currency and energy...
As was widely expected, the European Central Bank has started a program of Quantitative Easing, something which the ECB vowed it would never even consider when the supranational institution was created. Situations can change and less than 10 years after its...
Accusations of the West towards Putin are traditionally based on the fact that he worked in the KGB and therefore he is a cruel and immoral person. Putin is blamed for everything. But nobody ever accused Putin of lack of intelligence.
Many interesting things are happening in the markets as we move into 2015. On Thursday this week the ECB announced an eighteen month, 1.1 trillion euro QE program. I had a good chuckle over this as I remembered how Europe’s central bankers introduced the euro as a...
