Gold Editorials & Commentary

You may have heard the old adage: “What is worse than being lost? Not knowing you are lost.” In that same vein: What is worse than being at risk? You guessed it! Not knowing you’re at risk.

Zero Hedge has run an excellent article explaining the use of commodities, beginning with copper, to work around the Chinese government’s imposed capital control. Capital controls are intended to prevent arbitrage between the dollar interest rate and the yuan...

Recently the gold price hit a new seven-week low and hence posted its first monthly drop of 2014. Bullion is out of favour at the moment thanks to riskier assets such as equities gaining popularity. A rally in equities markets, in both 2013 and into 2014 has seen...

Warren Buffett once noted, Gold doesn’t do anything “but look at you.” It doesn’t pay a dividend or produce cash flow. However, the fact of the matter is that Gold has dramatically outperformed the stock market for the better part of 40 years.

The gold sector is peopled by a high concentration of contrary indicators because it is a relatively (to the vast world of equities and bonds) small market that offers refuge from some of the damaging aspects of the spectrum of investment products that are supported...

Briefly: In our opinion short speculative positions in gold (half), silver (half) and mining stocks (full) are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

With April Fools’ Day behind us, it’s time to get serious about investing. Don’t be fooled by this week’s non-farm payroll report; nor by the assertion that the U.S. may have the cleanest of the dirty shirts. And certainly don’t be fooled into thinking the market...

"Too many people know firsthand how devastating it is to lose a job at which you had succeeded and be unable to find another; to run through your savings and even lose your home." –Janet Yellen, March 31, 2014. I’ve predicted that quantitative easing will be...

Janet Yellen has only been Chairman of the Federal Reserve for less than two months and I am already convinced that she is the best thing to happen since Barack O'Bomber was first elected and awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Despite the arguments for and against gold as an economic indicator, this precious metal continues to hold a prominent position in our society and in our financial world.

Imagine that the US government is, euphemistically speaking, locked in a box created by deficits, debts, and decisions. There are six sides to the box – each an exit. We can describe them as:

We most recently discussed the long-term performance of the gold/silver ratio only two months ago, but the subject is sufficiently important to warrant some repetition. So, without further ado and with reference to the following monthly chart, here are the main...

A bad dream jolted me awake one morning last week: the economy had crashed, the banks were shuttered, commerce had ceased, the stores were stripped bare and rioting was everywhere. This bleak vision is not unusual for anyone who has imagined what the U.S. economy is...

We’ve all heard of the inflationary horrors so many countries have lived through in the past. Third-world countries, developing nations, and advanced economies alike—no country in history has escaped the debilitating fallout of unrepentant currency abuse. And we...

There is a growing presence out there talking about a potential Inverted Head & Shoulders (IH&S) on the HUI, which NFTRH has had going since mid-late last year. Below is a simple view of it, with last week’s ‘Week 2 down’ making perfect sense (symmetrically...

YTD Precious Metal Mutual Funds leave Wall Street stocks dead in the water. Golden Crosses in a basket of 374 precious metal equities. The 4 largest gold & silver equity mutual funds in the USA enjoyed soaring performance Year-To-Date.

As most of you know by now I believe we are going to see a big surge in inflation this year. As I've noted in my previous articles the first leg up in the CRB has run its course and broken the 3 year down trend that's been in place since 2011. I think it's time for...

SENTIMENT: The most reliable indicator of risk—although not as precise as money flow—is sentiment. It won’t give you the exact day, week or even month of an important market turn; I use our other indicators for that. However, it does give you a great indication when...

Under a Gold Standard, debt doesn’t pile up over the years as we see below with the US national debt. Credit creation during the gold standard era was used to fund future wealth creation. This new credit money was used to extract minerals and petroleum from the...

In my last missive, in early January, I sure was on target. First was the suggestion that the DIREXION Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X ETF was on a short term move to its previous high of $60 (it hit $59.50) but with the added suggestion that it should first cross $32...

In conjunction with the implementation of the Volcker Rule (effective April 1, 2014 with full compliance now scheduled by July 21, 2015) there has been an exodus of talent from the banks. The latest heavyweight departure came yesterday when Jamie Dimon’s closest...

Long term – on major sell signal since Mar 2012. Short term – on sell signals. Gold sector cycle – down as of 3/21, ending the up cycle since 12/27.

Current investing model favors equities and both the growth and energy sector are on major buy signals. Investors should stay invested and new money should wait for the 4 year cycle bottom in coming months.

Markets remain choppy and in correction mode and that’s why we’ve mostly been in cash the past 3 weeks. So many people always want and need action, but this type of market is hard on an account and will chop it up quickly.

Almost all who read our commentaries know that we place the greatest importance on reading the developing market activity, as best seen in charts, in order to have the closest pulse on what is going on in the market[s].  The reason is because the activity found in ...

In Part I, we discussed the concept of arbitrage. We showed why defining it as a risk-free investment that earns more than the risk-free rate of interest is invalid. There is no such thing as a risk-free investment, and in any case economics must be focused on the...

During the past couple months the price of gold has rallied strongly and broke to a new multi-month high. The recent strength and the possibility of a bottom has attracted a lot of bottom feeders who are trying to get involved early in hopes that a major breakout...

The above chart had always been interesting. The chart compares the US debt limit with the rise in debt and the rise in the price of gold. As the US debt limit was increased and the US debt grew, gold prices appeared to move in lockstep. That is until about 2011...

Investors dodged another bullet recently as geopolitical instability temporarily subsided after Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Although U.S. equities have experienced an internal correction since then, most of the damage has been relegated to over-extended tech...