Gold Editorials & Commentary

Five weeks have passed since Gold flipped its weekly parabolic trend from Long to Short, (effective the week ending 26 May).  And yet through these recent weeks, Gold really hasn’t seen much sink … until that just past as price is now finally falling from the brink...

Before proceeding, I’d like to remind you that this article is not written by a perma-bear. It is important to have credibility and indeed, NFTRH planned for a potential humdinger of a bear market rally back in Q4, 2022 based on the inputs of then extremely over-...

This week the Dow Jones was down from last week’s close, not so much that it would be noticeable in its BEV chart below.  As it has since last November, the Dow Jones is range bound between its BEV -5% & -15% lines.

Gold sector cycle is down. Trends are down. COT data supports overall higher gold prices. A correction is in progress but may be ending.

The gold miners’ stocks have fallen deeply out of favor a few weeks into their usual summer doldrums.  Even contrarian traders have mostly lost interest in this high-potential sector.  Their apathy is causing gold-stock prices to languish, creating the best seasonal...

Metals and miners turned lower, and it looks like we will see a little more downside into month’s end. The last two cycles bottomed as we changed months, so I’ll be on the lookout for evidence of bottoming in the final days of June or the opening days of July.

Here are today's videos and charts. 

Is it a mistake to believe the U.S. dollar is immune to repudiation until a new global reserve currency emerges to replace it? Could a “death from a thousand cuts” be an interim threat to the status of the mighty dollar?

I have written about the importance of a bear market, recession, and Fed shift for a Gold bull market. But today, I want to be more precise.

We expect the rally in the USDX to continue as we head higher in wave but for the time being we are assuming that wave b is becoming a simple 3 wave corrective pattern.

In this video, Tavi Costa, portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, Joins us today to talk about the current state of the global economy and its impact on the financial markets.

For most investors and market analysts today, there is little or no reference to the period 1960-80 as it pertains to gold and interest rates. There are some of us around, though, who experienced it both personally and professionally.

As noted in the previous post, the SPX/Gold ratio is at a time of decision; real or not real? The CRB/Gold ratio, on the other hand, is at a different kind of decision point. One where it will advise whether or not the inflation problem is going away.

Significant moves in Gold and outperformance for Gold against the stock market occur when the yield curve steepens. A steepening curve precedes Fed rate cuts and usually signals a recession.

Theoretically, a higher price can indicate an increase in value for a good, a service, a stock, etc. That does not mean that a higher price is always indicative of an increase in value.

I am going to start this update with a presentation as to how we got here for the benefit of those reading my articles for the first time, and I will then take it forward with parameters as to where I think we are going.

Most gold investors in America tend to focus on the “fear” trade. Negative real rates are good for gold. Recessions are good for gold. Almost anything bad that happens is deemed as good for gold.

Gold strengthened with the weakening of the U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields following comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) president about a likely interest-rate hike in July.

The markets just assumed a dovish U-turn in interest rates, thinking that the inflation problem is handled. The below chart features the inflation that’s expected in one year.

Since reaching a high of USD 2,067 on May 3rd, the bears have taken control of the gold market. In an initial wave down lasting about three and a half weeks, they pushed the price of gold down to USD 1,932.

The Midas Touch Gold Model illuminates the gold market from many different perspectives with a rational and holistic approach. It convinces with its versatility and its quantitative measurability. While rooted in extensive data, the model excels at distilling a...

When will the rampaging bull run out of steam? A good question, considering how Wall Street has been flouting a slew of good reasons for the broad averages to be at multiyear lows rather than revving up for a shot at new record highs.

As a banker and economist, I am riveted by the expeditious demise of Silicon Valley Bank and other institutions. Were these crashes due to bank mismanagement, as many pundits as well as regulators have posited? Were they due to not managing risk, not hedging, and...

I see a lot of traders and analysts still stuck in the bear market thesis for stocks or for the stock market, and I tried to warn people months and months ago when the Dow and the transports both confirmed a higher high, producing a Dow Theory Buy Signal, that ...

Our last article compared Gold today with the stock market in the early 1980s. Today we draw some comparisons between the Gold market at present and the Gold market at various points in the past. Gold’s status today fits elements of three past situations.

The title to this week’s missive pretty much puts it all in perspective.  And to the extent this week’s closing bit spooks you from stocks is your own cash management decision.  Nonetheless, let’s start with this triple-shot:

As the Federal Reserve begins to back off on tightening, the U.S. dollar is becoming increasingly vulnerable to selling. The Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at just above 5% at this week's policy meeting. It was the first time in over a year that...

The Dow Jones closed up this week, making another approach to break above its BEV -5% line below, something it has failed to do since last November, in the circle below. But will it break above it this time?

The gold market has become a social gathering place for an odd combination of participants. Those participants range from the gullible and the disillusioned to those seeking the next big thing.

Our proprietary cycle indicator is DOWN. GLD is on short term sell signal. GDX is on short term new buy signal. XGD.to is on short term sell signal. GDXJ is on short term sell signal.