Latest Gold Price Forecast & Predictions

Gold has pulled back to its 200-day moving average for the first time in over two years. While precious metals are attempting to find a floor, broader market stress continues to weigh on the sector.

As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the risk of a global recession increases by the day—and the Fed may be unable to respond until after markets have already taken significant damage.

Soaring bond yields signal tightening liquidity and ongoing inflation concerns. With private credit already under pressure, the situation could deteriorate further, raising the risk of a significant market selloff in April.

10-Year Yields

After peaking slightly above 5.00% in 2023, the 10-year Treasury yield has largely been consolidating within a narrowing range. The conflict in Iran has pushed yields higher, reflecting inflation and growing liquidity concerns. A decisive breakout above the upper boundary near 4.60% would signal increasing stress, while a move to new highs could have severe consequences for financial markets.

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With the action seen over the past week or so, the downward phase of the 34-day cycle was confirmed to be back in force - with the same now seen as true for the bigger 72-day component. With that, the next decent swing low should come from the combination of these waves, ideally set to play out into early-to-mid April.

Gold's 10-Day Cycle

For the very near-term, the downward phase of our smallest-tracked cycle - the 10-day wave - is also viewed as in force, and with that is into normal bottoming range. Here is that nominal 10-day component in Gold:

In terms of time, the current correction phase of this 10-day wave is now some 13 trading days along - which puts it in the back-end of normal bottoming range. With that, the next short-term rally should come from this cycle - which is due to materialize at anytime.

Having said that, it would currently...

Another big bank has raised its gold forecast.

This time, it’s JPMorgan expressing more bullish sentiment despite the recent correction.

The big bank raised its 2026 gold forecast from $5,055 per ounce to $6,300.

JPMorgan analysts note that the 11 percent correction late last month ranks alongside some of the largest down days in gold's history, including January 1980's 13 percent fall and the 12 percent slump in February 1983.

However, they emphasize gold bugs shouldn’t be worried.

"Even with the recent near-term volatility, we remain firmly bullishly convinced in gold over the medium-term on the back of ⁠a clean, structural, ‌continued diversification trend that has further to run amid a still well-entrenched regime of real asset ‍outperformance vs. paper assets."

JPMorgan analysts also lay out a case for $8,000 gold if households meaningfully increase their allocations. This underscores that while gold may become oversold at times, it is still significantly underinvested.

There has been growing interest in gold as a portfolio diversifier. Last fall, Morgan Stanley CIO Michael Wilson said investors should consider abandoning the traditional 60/40 equity/bond portfolio allocation and adopt a 60/20/20 distribution with 20 percent allocated to precious metals.

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