Background
Four features that can be used to distinguish a bubble, were discussed in Parts 1 and Part 2. These are:
Bear's Lair
Bear Markets always follow Bull markets and a severe stock market correction is long overdue. Bears Lair will spot, monitor and analyze the stock market correction as it develops.
A defensive market was the call . . . again for Wednesday action, and we weren't disappointed in the outcome.
Stock market action has been particularly choppy and disjointed, not atypical for option expiration week.
At no other time in history has the supposedly almighty dollar been easier to come by.
Overview
Bonds – nearing an intermediate-term low.
Stocks – nearing a major top. A severe correction is likely to commence very soon.
The gold market has just completed the trough phase of its latest cycle and is due for a rise in the coming days, based on our cycle analysis.
A "Coming of Age" . . by the Internet, likely summarizes much of what the Street is fearing now, as suggested immediately here in the wake of the largest "new & old media" merger Monday.
The purpose of this report is to correlate the inter-relationship between Gold, Interest Rates and Commodities.
Look out, gold bugs! The attack upon the precious metal is going to escalate. Your metal mettle will be tested.
The headline in my January 2000 issue, which is scheduled to go to press this coming Monday is " Enjoying the Party and Getting Home Safely".
1999 was a successful year for the Tocqueville Gold Fund, which produced a return of 20.6% compared to a negative 7.8% for the benchmark Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold/Silver Index, an outperformance of 28.4%.
The extraordinary two-tiered market we have witnessed for the past three months continues to astound market neophytes and long-time observers alike. We ourselves must confess we've never seen anything quite like this.
GENERAL COMMENTS: A decade ago most Russians would have regarded all KGB agents as thugs.
Today was day 43 in what continues to be an historic period of absolutely destructive speculation.
It would seem appropriate for a review, at this, the dawn of a new calendar age.
"We learn from history that we do not learn from history."
Dr. Milton Friedman, Nobel laureate in Economics
The 4th quarter market action was simply amazing. Despite some of the most aggressive valuations in financial history the popular high-tech stocks and indices rose in breathtaking fashion.
The absence of an international monetary order rooted in gold makes the century now ending unique. Professor Robert H. Mundell emphasized this point in accepting the 1999 Nobel Prize in Economics a couple of weeks ago. See R. L.
Murphy's Law will be at full strength when the clock strikes midnight on Friday. For the guidance of investors and market-watchers, here are my predictions of the top U.S.
I would like to dedicate my end of the millennium crystal gazing to the Gold-Eagle Forum, its managers and faithful contributors, to Harry Schultz, Frank Veneroso, Bill Murphy, Ted Butler and the many others, who are doing so much
The manipulation continues unabated. The Dutch central bank has announced it intends to sell 300 tons of its gold reserves over the next five years.
In the 1970's a very courageous gentleman named Edward Durrell claimed that substantially all of the US Gold Reserve being stored at Ft. Knox was gone.
Huge, almost neurotic, volume and swings . . . are in harmony with our call for Wednesday's action, but belie the underlying nervousness that increasingly is prevailing in the stock markets.
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